Economics
Greek bailout funds approved but debt relief still contentious
IMF agrees “in principle” to new support for Greece, unlocking European funds, but parties still fail to reach accord on debt relief
Norges Bank sees room for improvement when forecasting wages
Evaluation of forecast performance shows both the central bank and other forecasters struggled to produce accurate estimates of wage growth and unemployment
Irish central bank renews Brexit warnings
Rapid house price rise fuelled by scarcity, Central Bank of Ireland says
ECB paper calls for EU-wide bond-issuing agency
Authors propose the ECB and a bond issuer should work together to stimulate eurozone
Term premiums matter for inflation – BoJ paper
Term premiums domestically and abroad appear to affect inflation via the exchange rate channel, authors find
IMF economist builds agent-based banking system model
Model captures the diversity of agents and the use of rules of thumb; the author says the modular nature allows “straightforward” enhancements
Riksbank unveils results of web-scraping project
The big data technique for collecting prices could better capture volatile inflation components, allowing for more accurate forecasts, economists say
UK election roundup: all eyes on Brexit negotiations
Economists react as UK vote delivers a hung parliament, casting doubt on the way forward with Brexit negotiations and causing a drop in the pound
Obstfeld and Taylor back dual trilemma global finance theory
Economists still need to better incorporate financial stability into their thinking, the authors argue, with the concept of a financial trilemma helping to explain recent instability
Culture has ‘significant’ effect on Swiss saving – paper
Researcher uses data from linguistically different Swiss groups
‘Home bias’ in expectations heightens shocks – paper
Researchers present a model where domestic variables shape expectations
Central banks should test robustness of their main macro models – paper
Bank of Canada paper says users of large-scale macroeconomic models should develop tools to assess whether non-linearities could be distorting results
Irish paper examines why banks set collateral conditions
Ex-ante risk and loan size are key factors, researchers say
Riksbank paper studies impact of oil on world business cycle
Researchers find possible solution to macro puzzles by introducing oil shocks into a model of the global economy
Fed paper warns on helicopter money risks
Tool appears much less powerful when less realistic elements of the New Keynesian framework are removed; other options could work better, authors say
Paper examines how sovereign debt losses hit real economy
Researcher presents unique database on eurozone sovereign debt crisis
Global institutions strike Mongolia bailout deal
Institutions including the IMF, World Bank and People’s Bank of China strike a deal to provide funding and other support to the slumping economy
IMF’s Werner: Latin America must keep debt under control
Western hemisphere chief says there are some concerning signs on debt, although the risk of a systemic crisis is low; region well placed to weather Fed shock
ECB paper classifies eurozone banks’ business models
Researchers use supervisory data to outline models’ risk and performance
MAS seeking to build data science community, says chief data officer
David Hardoon urges people to embrace data science and computing; authority is looking to build links with academia and financial sector to share ideas
Zhou highlights need for ‘financial connectivity’ under Belt and Road
Initiative has sizeable financing demands that will require efforts to improve cross-border financial links, PBoC governor says
Dombret asks what form of international economic co-ordination is viable
It is impossible to have full global market liberalisation and national sovereignty and democracy, Bundesbank board member says
Authors struggle to cut ‘price puzzle’ from Australian data
Authors find various approaches to removing the puzzle from VAR models fail for Australian data, calling into question the usefulness of the models
Fed report finds many people left behind by growth
Survey finds nearly a quarter of Americans struggling to pay their bills; problems concentrated in less-educated segments of the population and minority groups