Spanish paper looks at business cycle’s effects on industry

Photo of the Bank of Spain
The Bank of Spain

A working paper published by the Bank of Spain attempts to model how different groups of industries react to the national business cycle.

In The propagation of industrial business cycles, Maximo Camacho and Danilo Leiva-Leon use Gibbs sampling, a multivariate Markov-switching model, and non-parametric density estimation approaches.

The authors find that “the number and location of modes in the distribution of industrial dissimilarities change over the business cycle”. These changes follow a “r

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