Paper’s forecasting technique using Markov-switching models
Results outperform Fed’s survey of professional forecasters, says Bank of Spain paper
A working paper published by the Bank of Spain presents a number of methods for averaging the predictive results of non-linear models, and applies them to data from the US.
In Model averaging in Markov-switching models: predicting national recessions with regional data, Pierre Guérin and Danilo Leiva-Leon introduce what they call “new weighting schemes to combine discrete forecasts from competing Markov-switching models”.
A large literature combines results from linear forecasting models, but
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