Economics
‘Multiple lending’ may cause contagion during stress – paper
Researchers say multiple lending may ease liquidity shocks in normal conditions, however
Norges Bank study: regional network is supplying useful information
Central bank’s network of contacts is able to deliver better information on growth than other sources, report finds
Little evidence to support ‘global slack’ thesis, ECB paper argues
Researchers say global spare capacity is not increasing as an influence on eurozone inflation
BoE economists criticise DSGE inflation modelling
Team including MPC member Kristin Forbes criticises structural modelling approaches for failing to properly account for trend inflation
BIS comes to the defence of globalisation
Increasing trade and financial integration have had a “profoundly positive” impact on people’s lives, but do bring drawbacks too; the correct response is not a wholesale rollback, says Jaime Caruana
Some outflows from China may have been ‘disguised’ – Fed paper
China’s success reducing current account surplus may partly have been due to financial outflows disguised as “travel”, Fed economist finds
Model looks at outbreak of ‘fire sales’
Higher capital ratios may aggravate financial contagion, the authors say
No ‘Taylor rule’ without Meltzer’s support
John Taylor says he would “likely have done other things” if not encouraged by Allan Meltzer to develop the eponymous rule
Making the rules and breaking the mould (Allan Meltzer: 1928–2017)
John Taylor writes about the extraordinary life of a pioneering economist whose lifelong work defied traditional rules – but one who strongly advocated them for central banks
BIS paper: forces driving global liquidity are shifting
Paper examines factors behind changing patterns of global liquidity, finding improved prudential standards have cut volatility
Greek bailout funds approved but debt relief still contentious
IMF agrees “in principle” to new support for Greece, unlocking European funds, but parties still fail to reach accord on debt relief
Norges Bank sees room for improvement when forecasting wages
Evaluation of forecast performance shows both the central bank and other forecasters struggled to produce accurate estimates of wage growth and unemployment
Irish central bank renews Brexit warnings
Rapid house price rise fuelled by scarcity, Central Bank of Ireland says
ECB paper calls for EU-wide bond-issuing agency
Authors propose the ECB and a bond issuer should work together to stimulate eurozone
Term premiums matter for inflation – BoJ paper
Term premiums domestically and abroad appear to affect inflation via the exchange rate channel, authors find
IMF economist builds agent-based banking system model
Model captures the diversity of agents and the use of rules of thumb; the author says the modular nature allows “straightforward” enhancements
Riksbank unveils results of web-scraping project
The big data technique for collecting prices could better capture volatile inflation components, allowing for more accurate forecasts, economists say
UK election roundup: all eyes on Brexit negotiations
Economists react as UK vote delivers a hung parliament, casting doubt on the way forward with Brexit negotiations and causing a drop in the pound
Obstfeld and Taylor back dual trilemma global finance theory
Economists still need to better incorporate financial stability into their thinking, the authors argue, with the concept of a financial trilemma helping to explain recent instability
Culture has ‘significant’ effect on Swiss saving – paper
Researcher uses data from linguistically different Swiss groups
‘Home bias’ in expectations heightens shocks – paper
Researchers present a model where domestic variables shape expectations
Central banks should test robustness of their main macro models – paper
Bank of Canada paper says users of large-scale macroeconomic models should develop tools to assess whether non-linearities could be distorting results
Irish paper examines why banks set collateral conditions
Ex-ante risk and loan size are key factors, researchers say
Riksbank paper studies impact of oil on world business cycle
Researchers find possible solution to macro puzzles by introducing oil shocks into a model of the global economy