Economics
Thinking on global capital flows is muddled – BIS’s Shin
BIS head of research says policies to guard against excess global liquidity should look at underlying causes, not symptoms such as capital flows; Fed’s Fischer acknowledges policy spillovers
Type of uncertainty matters for modelling – Norges Bank paper
Author develops method to “disentangle” various forms of uncertainty, finding they can have good and bad effects
Fed paper seeks better forecasts from information inefficiencies
Paper finds it is difficult to build a better forecast on the basis of deviations from rationality in surveys, implying such inefficiencies are not “economically meaningful”
IMF remains gloomy on Brexit as UK heads for snap election
Maurice Obstfeld admits IMF was overly pessimistic on consumer response to Brexit, but says supply shock could still bite; global outlook more positive
Paper examines how sticky investment prices affect DGSE model
Findings bring the model in line with growth accounting exercises, the researcher says
BoJ paper sketches ‘vicious circle’ behind productivity traps
“Lacklustre” economic reforms and firms’ unwillingness to innovate may create a “negatively reinforcing” loop, the authors warn
Technology driving inequality in advanced economies – IMF
Technology plays “dominant role” in explaining falling labour share of income in advanced economies, study finds; globalisation more important for emerging markets
RBNZ paper develops ‘intuitive and reliable’ output gap measure
Authors turn to a “Beveridge-Nelson filter” to produce an output gap estimate that performs better than those produced by other filtering techniques
Bank of Finland publishes China and Russia forecasts
Chinese targets “encourage data manipulation”; Russia stalls on structural reforms
BoJ builds on BIS banking statistics
Researchers break down the statistics further, shedding new light on patterns of cross-border banking
Be careful of using swaps to track inflation expectations, analyst says
Be careful of using swaps to track inflation expectations, analyst says
Brazil can no longer rely on consumption for growth – paper
IMF paper highlights need for Brazil to switch to investment-led growth model as infrastructure caps threaten productivity and competitiveness
Spanish paper models effects of European ‘fiscal delegation’
Supranational fiscal authority would improve welfare, authors argue
Financial constraints fuel price mark-ups, Italian paper finds
Researchers use data on Italian economy in 2010 to 2013
Bank and capital market financing not created equal – BIS paper
Substituting bank loans for non-bank finance after a shock appears to have a negative impact on the economy, authors find
Commodity prices impact the probability of project completion in Peru – paper
BIS paper examines how a drop in oil prices affects the timing and completion of investment projects; results show mining sector in Peru is particularly sensitive
Schembri: mix of factors holding back Canadian investment
The outlook is improving, the deputy governor says; openness to trade and immigration are likely to boost growth
BoE paper: ‘imperfect common knowledge’ implies Taylor principle need not hold
It is not strictly necessary for a central bank to respond to temporary deviations of the economy from trend, paper finds; result challenges findings such as ‘Neo Fisherism’
Finnish paper presents two explanations for eurozone weakness
Paper looks at fall in natural interest rate and output rate shocks
Positive shock could still trip up advanced economies – Blanchard
Former IMF chief economist warns high debt levels could interact with positive shocks to cause problems; backs Rogoff’s plan for a cashless society
Hysteresis can explain eurozone peculiarities – Eichengreen and Bayoumi
Eurozone has not responded to shocks in the way economic theory would normally imply, with the German economy tied surprisingly closely to those of ‘peripheral’ countries
Boost technology diffusion to solve productivity puzzle – Haldane
BoE’s chief economist says a “long tail” of low-productivity firms need support as they fall further behind a small frontier group
Successful bank nationalisations need trust in government, paper argues
DNB paper looks at effects of government intervention on bank customers’ behaviour
BoE research offers insights from new regulatory database
The new database, comprising banks’ regulatory submissions, allows authors to shed new light on the evolution of the UK banking sector in recent decades