Economics
Survey data can help with modelling expectations – BoJ paper
Discussion paper outlines method of incorporating survey data as a proxy for expectations, with “promising” results for inflation modelling in the US and Japan
‘Multiple lending’ may cause contagion during stress – paper
Researchers say multiple lending may ease liquidity shocks in normal conditions, however
Norges Bank study: regional network is supplying useful information
Central bank’s network of contacts is able to deliver better information on growth than other sources, report finds
Little evidence to support ‘global slack’ thesis, ECB paper argues
Researchers say global spare capacity is not increasing as an influence on eurozone inflation
BoE economists criticise DSGE inflation modelling
Team including MPC member Kristin Forbes criticises structural modelling approaches for failing to properly account for trend inflation
BIS comes to the defence of globalisation
Increasing trade and financial integration have had a “profoundly positive” impact on people’s lives, but do bring drawbacks too; the correct response is not a wholesale rollback, says Jaime Caruana
Some outflows from China may have been ‘disguised’ – Fed paper
China’s success reducing current account surplus may partly have been due to financial outflows disguised as “travel”, Fed economist finds
Model looks at outbreak of ‘fire sales’
Higher capital ratios may aggravate financial contagion, the authors say
No ‘Taylor rule’ without Meltzer’s support
John Taylor says he would “likely have done other things” if not encouraged by Allan Meltzer to develop the eponymous rule
Making the rules and breaking the mould (Allan Meltzer: 1928–2017)
John Taylor writes about the extraordinary life of a pioneering economist whose lifelong work defied traditional rules – but one who strongly advocated them for central banks
BIS paper: forces driving global liquidity are shifting
Paper examines factors behind changing patterns of global liquidity, finding improved prudential standards have cut volatility
Greek bailout funds approved but debt relief still contentious
IMF agrees “in principle” to new support for Greece, unlocking European funds, but parties still fail to reach accord on debt relief
Norges Bank sees room for improvement when forecasting wages
Evaluation of forecast performance shows both the central bank and other forecasters struggled to produce accurate estimates of wage growth and unemployment
Irish central bank renews Brexit warnings
Rapid house price rise fuelled by scarcity, Central Bank of Ireland says
ECB paper calls for EU-wide bond-issuing agency
Authors propose the ECB and a bond issuer should work together to stimulate eurozone
Term premiums matter for inflation – BoJ paper
Term premiums domestically and abroad appear to affect inflation via the exchange rate channel, authors find