Economics
Zimbabwe back in hyperinflation, say Hanke and Bostrom
The economists estimate that Zimbabwe’s monthly inflation rate is now above 100%
Teaching machines to do monetary policy
Machine learning may not yet be at the stage where central bankers are being replaced with robots, but the field is bringing powerful tools to bear on big economic questions
Low inflation partly down to luck – CEPR report
David Miles and co-authors argue advanced economies’ luck on inflation could run out; recommend central banks prepare
BoE paper studies interest rates across eight centuries
In July 2016, the global risk-free rate hit its lowest level since at least 1273, according to a new extra-long-term dataset
Interview: Edward Prescott
The Nobel Prize-winner speaks to Daniel Hinge about time inconsistency and real business cycle theory, and explains why there is no ‘productivity puzzle’
Paper highlights disparity in which fields of economics women enter
New York Fed study examines female participation rates in economics through conference case study, suggesting there may be barriers for women entering finance
Communication technology helps explain productivity puzzle – Fed paper
Properly accounting for ICT services produces “very large” boost to US labour productivity figures, authors say
Cross-border credit slips back into contraction
Latest BIS statistics show rebound of cross-border claims was temporary; China bucks trend with rapid growth of inward credit
SBP notes caveats to decade-high growth
Expansion of Pakistan’s economy continued in fiscal 2017, although the central bank is concerned about a widening current account deficit
OECD urges UK to maintain ‘close ties’ with EU
Latest assessment of UK economy warns of damaging impact of Brexit vote; Ángel Gurría says close future relationship “absolutely key”
Blanchard and Summers call for rethink of stabilisation policy
Both economists question consensus on fiscal prudence and advocate stricter financial regulation
IMF cautions global vulnerabilities put growth at risk
Fund calls central banks to provide needed monetary support while tackling underlying threats
Stressed banks may hamper deleveraging in eurozone periphery – ECB paper
Researchers use data on more than 400,000 companies and 900 banks from seven eurozone countries
Bank of Canada paper studies capital control motivations
Researcher designs policy rule to study whether capital controls are imposed with “mercantilist” or “macro-prudential” motivations
IMF: global recovery is broad but incomplete
Fund ups its growth forecasts but says many are missing out; Maurice Obstfeld urges policymakers to take action while “times are good”
Global factor playing bigger role in commodity prices, researchers say
“Single global factor” likely to be linked to demand, Banque de France paper finds
Markets upbeat on strengthening US wage growth figures
Non-farm payrolls drop slightly but wages appear to be gathering pace; figures impacted by hurricanes Irma and Harvey
Bank of Portugal expects stronger growth in 2017
Exports are expected to boost GDP growth to 2.5% in 2017, up from 1.5% in 2016
Book notes: Econometrics as a Con Art, by Imad Moosa
Every central bank should have a copy of this interesting study, which holds common econometric practice under the microscope, writes Graham Bannock
Neural network can beat conventional forecasts – Kansas City Fed research
Deep learning model outperforms Survey of Professional Forecasters at all horizons
Low wage rises may hamper inflation in Sweden – IMF
Higher housing prices and private debt call for stricter amortisation requirements
Constâncio discusses possible changes to new ECB model
Modelling of aggregate consumption and expectations must improve - ECB vice-president
BIS report sheds light on innovative big data use
Central banks across the globe are turning to big data to solve statistical issues, improve banking supervision, and analyse communications
Fed paper calls for rethink of conditions for setting capital controls
Policymakers should also consider how external shocks affect the borrowing capacity of the country, researchers say