Economics
Constâncio discusses possible changes to new ECB model
Modelling of aggregate consumption and expectations must improve - ECB vice-president
BIS report sheds light on innovative big data use
Central banks across the globe are turning to big data to solve statistical issues, improve banking supervision, and analyse communications
Fed paper calls for rethink of conditions for setting capital controls
Policymakers should also consider how external shocks affect the borrowing capacity of the country, researchers say
Good data management key to extracting value from big data – panellists
Big data proves most useful when backed by a well-designed production chain – but it comes at a cost, central bank data experts say
Non-bank stress tests must be improved – Constâncio
ECB vice-president says stress tests for non-banks are still in a “fledgling state”
Danish central bank advises Faroese public spending cuts
Higher salmon prices and low unemployment may overheat the economy, the central bank says
ECB paper attempts rigorous testing of economic sentiment
Researchers correlate economic data from 1985 to 2016 with measures of sentiment
‘Significant non-linearities’ in debt-investment relationship, paper says
Researchers look at data from five peripheral eurozone countries
IMF paper calls for global co-operation on big data
Discussion note urges statistical authorities to “step up” their involvement in big data projects and develop frameworks for knowledge sharing
Sovereign debt crises hit non-tradable sectors harder
A 1% increase in bond spreads is associated with an average decline of 3% in growth of zero-traded industries
BoE’s Vlieghe: financial sector may have pushed rates down
MPC member suggests end of the gold standard seems to have lent a negative skew to growth; gives hawkish signals on future policy
Only 30% probability of eurozone inflation hitting target in next year, paper says
Italian researchers present composite index based on 15 indicators of price dynamics
Philadelphia Fed launches new research institute
Research body is tasked with better understanding consumer behaviour, particularly in relation to financial markets
BoE paper adds time-varying parameters to DSGE model
Method allows parameters to shift over time as the structure of the economy changes, yielding improvements to forecasting
More power for US politicians reduces credit in their states, paper finds
Gains in power for politicians' power may increase banks’ ability to screen out lenders, researchers say
Low-income families suffer higher inflation rates, paper finds
The differences in prices occur in the same categories of goods
Big banks’ share prices more sensitive to rate moves – paper
Lower capital ratios diminish exposure to changes in the yield curve, says research
Bank of Mexico revises upwards its economic forecasts
Inflation is projected to return to the 3% target in 2018 and growth to be higher than expected, says governor
BoE authors outline machine learning framework
Paper offers guide to machine learning in central bank analysis, and sets out a few examples relevant to policy
Paper challenges Rey’s ideas on global financial cycle
Cerutti, Claessens and Rose contest idea that capital flows are mainly the result of common shocks or developments in the US
BIS payment stats to embrace non-banks and faster payments
New methodology acknowledges role fintech has played in reshaping payments landscape; contactless payment data to be included
ECB paper presents new measure for monitoring real estate vulnerability
Aggregated measure out-performs most models as predictor of past crises, authors say
Recent low US inflation figures likely to be revised – Dallas Fed vice-president
Data allows “nowcasting” of inflation, paper argues