Economics
LatAm should pursue regional financial integration – IMF paper
Timing is “ripe” for region to pursue financial integration as means of counterbalancing effects of departing global banks, authors say
Dutch paper looks at effects of public capital on advanced country growth
Researchers present data on 20 OECD countries
RBNZ paper sheds light on core macro model
'NZSIM' is a semi-structural model, with a DSGE core augmented with a handful of additional equations
Riksbank early warning indicator signals high risks
New measure of financial fragility performs better than credit gap method, economists say; current readings suggest risks are on a par with 2008
BIS paper finds Fed’s QE had little discernible impact on real economy
Results are still preliminary, authors say, but “cast some doubt” on the effectiveness of US quantitative easing
No evidence fiscal rules affected Spanish deficits – paper
Researchers look at fiscal record of Spanish regional governments over 2002–15
Farms, germs and loans: central banking in 19th century France
Researchers study Banque de France’s lender-of-last-resort operations
BIS paper presents evidence on Uruguayan price setting
Authors develop survey-based measure of firms’ price-setting behaviour, which may prove useful for research on other emerging markets
Eichengreen sees danger in US fiscal stimulus
Veteran economist warns infrastructure spending in the US may prove damaging to both the domestic and global economy, without necessarily fixing secular stagnation
Villeroy de Galhau highlights factors behind slow growth
French governor highlights importance of wage-setting mechanisms
IMF raises projections for US and eurozone growth for 2017
US policy mix still uncertain, but IMF staff do not yet believe changes will trigger an international trade shock; growth projections for emerging economies revised downwards
Measurement error a big part of ‘missing growth’ – Philippe Aghion
Statistics fail to capture creative destruction, French academic argues; US researchers say productivity in IT sector points to continued puzzle
Dutch paper looks at sovereign bank interdependencies
Researchers apply correlation between sovereign and bank credit default swaps
Harker optimistic in first speech as FOMC voting member
Inflation target set to be met this year, says Philadelphia Fed governor, noting labour force participation issues need to be addressed with legislative action
Monitoring the labour market is key – BoE’s Saunders
Bank of England’s MPC member says unemployment should stay below the equilibrium 5% estimate in 2017 – but, should “warning signs appear”, changes to forecasts could be made
Italian paper looks at securitisation of SME loans
Asymmetric information can be overcome by the use of observable data
Azerbaijan raids oil fund as central bank reserves dwindle
President allocates chunk of oil fund to top up central bank reserves, as pressure on the manat continues
ECB paper looks at ‘sub-sovereign’ bond yield spreads
Researchers find debt levels and risk aversion are important factors
Global value chains increasingly driving global inflation – BIS paper
Growth of global value chains limits the importance of domestic factors in creating inflation, complicating the jobs of central banks
BoE paper tackles big data on Swiss franc de-pegging
Trade repository data sheds light on liquidity problems and market fragmentation around the removal of the SNB’s Swiss franc floor in January 2015
Nigerian central bank details funding for farmers
Programme is latest to aim at boosting production of import substitutes
Terms-of-trade shocks affect house price fluctuations – paper
Bank of Canada research shows terms of trade shocks explain large percentage of variance in house price growth; most of the variation associated with changes in real import prices, authors say
Haldane hopeful for ‘rebirth’ of economics
BoE chief economist believes crisis for the profession could lead to a break with past thinking; offers solutions to productivity problems
News cycle can give estimate of business cycle – Norges Bank paper
Index derived from business newspaper is both more timely and more accurate than traditional business cycle indicators, author says