Economics
China’s macroeconomy in the ‘new era’ of politics and power
Lou Jiwei, president of the National Council for Social Security Fund and former minister of finance of China, explores the three key aspects of China’s macroeconomic situation in the ‘new era’ of Chinese politics and power
Swedish paper examines effects of business cycles on employment
Volatile business cycles cut the number of new jobs and employment, Riksbank paper says; analysis uses labour market search model to track effects
Claims on offshore centres at record high – BIS data
Overall cross-border claims “gained momentum” in Q4 2017
BoE paper investigates uncertainty around elections
Elections help to isolate macroeconomic and financial uncertainty, author argues
The IFF China Report 2018
Insight and opinion from China’s top leaders, policymakers and financiers
Fed forecasts overcompensate for trend deviations, paper says
Federal Reserve tends to “overpredict” growth when the economy is running below trend
More older people and women joining labour force, RBNZ paper finds
New Zealand’s labour force participation has grown since 2000 and reached an all-time high in 2017
After the Congress – Interpreting China’s new development concept
As Xi Jinping Thought is enshrined in the Constitution, Justin Lin, IFF member and former chief economist at the World Bank, calls for far-reaching innovation in all sectors of industry and finance to attain the goal of national rejuvenation
Real rates likely to move back up – BIS paper
Use of “shadow rate” allows authors to account for the effective lower bound
The IFF China Report 2018: The Belt and Road Initiative
China’s signature Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) now includes 71 countries, with trillions of dollars of investment allocated. Leading Chinese and international policymakers explain how BRI efforts are progressing. This section includes an inaugural…
The IFF China Report 2018: China’s opening-up and reform policy
The experiences of China’s opening-up and reform during the past 40 years, which includes a transition from an agricultural economy to one seeking to offer high-end manufacturing and services, offer valuable lessons to other nations seeking to pursue…
A route to economic growth – The Belt and Road Initiative 2018 survey
To mark the fifth anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the IFF – in collaboration with Central Banking – conducted its inaugural Belt and Road Survey of central banks from more than 25 countries and regions. The survey examines BRI…
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank – Raising expectations
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank embodies international co-operation and innovation – the spirit of modern China. Strict management, openness and transparency have won the bank wide recognition and acceptance, says Jin Liqun, the bank’s president
BoE paper hunts for shifts in forecast accuracy
Authors outline new method of detecting when forecasts break down
US labour participation rate down more than OECD average – Dallas Fed
Higher incarceration rates and worse social services may partly explain trend
The IFF China Report 2018: Post-financial crisis – A decade on
The Global Financial Crisis sparked Group of 20 countries to introduce tough new regulations on financial institutions and instruments. Yet the architecture of the global monetary, economic and financial system has many flaws. What lessons can China…
Brexit will hit Irish economy hard, Banque de France paper finds
Researchers look at cost of undoing European Union’s single market
RBA paper offers new way to add housing sector to DSGE models
Authors find their model delivers “reasonable” forecast performance
BoE goes granular with data experiment
UK central bank announces successful data proof of concept looking to store, organise and combine data based on the XBRL standard
No one can win a trade war, says Benoît Cœuré
Senior ECB official says US growth could be cut by 2.5% by tariff hikes
Growth in the digital economy has scrambled statistics – IMF paper
Countries may have been understating GDP growth, while overstating inflation, IMF analysis reveals, as digital products skew prices
ECB paper proposes eurozone stabilisation policy based on trade changes
Scheme would avoid moral hazard or permanent transfers from one country, authors argue
Bundesbank paper looks at cross-border cycles in six European economies
Equity prices and interest rates more strongly synchronised than real economic activity – researchers
High-frequency data helps capture ‘psychological subtlety’ – BoJ paper
Study of “tick-by-tick” data finds markets have become more sensitive to the central bank’s policy announcements