Economics
Tariffs unlikely to have lasting impact on US economy – Bullard
Disruption of global supply chain could be biggest risk of trade dispute to date, says St Louis Fed president
Negative policy rates increases risk-taking by high-deposit banks - ECB paper
Eurozone banks with high deposit levels have changed lending patterns since 2014, say researchers
Trade data can detect illegal financial flows, Bank of Italy paper says
Authorities largely ignore “trade-based money laundering”, authors argue
Spanish banks strongly influenced by knowledge of firms, paper finds
Banks’ understanding of clients helped smooth credit contraction during financial crisis – researchers
Podcast: David Hendry and John Muellbauer on empirical macro
The econometricians cast a sceptical eye over DSGE models and weigh up some alternatives
US expansion set to continue in H2 2018 – Dallas Fed
US enjoys strong consumer spending, a healthy labour market and inflation on target
New York Fed publishes nowcasting code
Matlab code for estimating a dynamic factor model now available in online repository
West Bank weakness drives economic slowdown in Palestine
Palestine Monetary Authority notes “significant drop” in West Bank conditions index
Non-linear mortgage features can impact policymaking – BoE paper
Non-linear features of mortgages impact policymaking in a DSGE model, the authors find
Imperfect algorithms impact market pricing – Fed paper
News-parsing algorithms create temporary distortions and may cut liquidity, paper finds
Turkish lira down 22% as crisis builds
Lira collapses and bond yields soar as Donald Trump unveils fresh sanctions
RBA trims inflation projections on low wage growth
Weaker outlook leads RBA to cut CPI forecasts to 1.75% in December 2018 from 2.25%
Big data in central banks focus report 2018
The third Central Banking big data focus report delves further into recent trends as central banks grapple with the question of upgrading their approaches to data
Data handling – A rethink
Official institutions are maturing as big data users but there is plenty more work to be done.
Barbados hands GDP baton to statistical agency
Central bank will abide by international best practice and use statistical service estimates
US could lose a third of growth to climate change – Richmond Fed article
Authors warn economic damage could be much more widespread than typically assumed
Rising wages set to increase inflation – ECB research
Strong GDP growth and employment creation underpins higher underlying price pressures
Sponsored forum: Putting big data into action
Central Banking convened a panel of experts to discuss how central banks and other supervisors can maximise the potential of data, while overcoming hurdles to its collection and deployment
Putting big data into action
Big data is changing the way central banks think about the economy and oversee the financial system. In a forum sponsored by BearingPoint, Central Banking convened a panel of experts to discuss the innovative ways central banks are making use of big data.
Zimbabwean economy faces uncertainty after controversial election result
Violence and accusations of unfairness around the presidential election have dampened hopes of economic recovery
BoE updates estimate of equilibrium interest rates
Latest data shows demographic factors have weighed heavily on real interest rates
Equities pushing US wealth inequality - Minneapolis Fed paper
Wealth inequality boosted by record-high stocks and slower growth in house prices, paper finds