Economics
Haldane: market power puzzle is important for policy
Micro and macro evidence “not easily reconciled”, says BoE chief economist, but market power could have major impact on inflation
Bank of Mauritius lowers inflation forecast
Adverse shocks to food prices are subsiding, central bank says
Foreign monetary policy affects French and Italian lending – researchers
US policy especially significant, Banque de France paper finds
Tariffs will reduce US exports – New York Fed
Higher producing costs likely to reduce competitiveness of local production, article says
Tariffs unlikely to have lasting impact on US economy – Bullard
Disruption of global supply chain could be biggest risk of trade dispute to date, says St Louis Fed president
Negative policy rates increases risk-taking by high-deposit banks - ECB paper
Eurozone banks with high deposit levels have changed lending patterns since 2014, say researchers
Trade data can detect illegal financial flows, Bank of Italy paper says
Authorities largely ignore “trade-based money laundering”, authors argue
Spanish banks strongly influenced by knowledge of firms, paper finds
Banks’ understanding of clients helped smooth credit contraction during financial crisis – researchers
Podcast: David Hendry and John Muellbauer on empirical macro
The econometricians cast a sceptical eye over DSGE models and weigh up some alternatives
US expansion set to continue in H2 2018 – Dallas Fed
US enjoys strong consumer spending, a healthy labour market and inflation on target
New York Fed publishes nowcasting code
Matlab code for estimating a dynamic factor model now available in online repository
West Bank weakness drives economic slowdown in Palestine
Palestine Monetary Authority notes “significant drop” in West Bank conditions index
Non-linear mortgage features can impact policymaking – BoE paper
Non-linear features of mortgages impact policymaking in a DSGE model, the authors find
Imperfect algorithms impact market pricing – Fed paper
News-parsing algorithms create temporary distortions and may cut liquidity, paper finds
Turkish lira down 22% as crisis builds
Lira collapses and bond yields soar as Donald Trump unveils fresh sanctions
RBA trims inflation projections on low wage growth
Weaker outlook leads RBA to cut CPI forecasts to 1.75% in December 2018 from 2.25%
Big data in central banks focus report 2018
The third Central Banking big data focus report delves further into recent trends as central banks grapple with the question of upgrading their approaches to data
Data handling – A rethink
Official institutions are maturing as big data users but there is plenty more work to be done.
Barbados hands GDP baton to statistical agency
Central bank will abide by international best practice and use statistical service estimates
US could lose a third of growth to climate change – Richmond Fed article
Authors warn economic damage could be much more widespread than typically assumed
Rising wages set to increase inflation – ECB research
Strong GDP growth and employment creation underpins higher underlying price pressures
Sponsored forum: Putting big data into action
Central Banking convened a panel of experts to discuss how central banks and other supervisors can maximise the potential of data, while overcoming hurdles to its collection and deployment