Economics
Global uncertainty increases financial interconnections – paper
Researchers use a network approach to evaluate financial interconnectedness
Bank of Korea unveils changes to its DSGE model
The existing model’s accuracy was reduced following structural changes in the economy
Italian consumer lending more risk-priced post-2008 – paper
Institutions tightened lending to consumers based on household factors
UK figures reveal 1.47 million people out of work
While the employment rate has continued to rise, the rate of unemployment has increased by the sharpest level in almost five years
BIS paper uses ‘shadow rate’ to study market expectations
Fan Dora Xia and Jing Cynthia Wu find they can estimate expectations over a longer horizon by using a shadow rate term structure model
Higher inflation in the US pushes up yields
The headline consumer price index rose by 2.1% year on year
Credit constraints hits smaller eurozone firms’ investment – Spanish paper
Researcher finds credit constraints have less impact on working capital and growth
Eurozone needs structural reforms to realign real exchange rates – Italian paper
Real exchange rate misalignments persist for longer in eurozone, researchers say
UK inflation refuses to budge from 3%
Despite a decline in oil price pressure, UK inflation remains above target; latest figures increase the likelihood of the Bank of England raising rates in May
Lacklustre recovery down to pre-crisis factors – research
San Francisco Fed article says weak recovery in the US due to long-running factors, and not the immediate impact of the global crisis
US real GDP growth accelerating in 2018 – Atlanta Fed
The real-time index GDPNow forecasts an annualised expansion of 4% in the first quarter
World does not have to be ‘hostage’ to technology – Wilkins
Finding a way to control the market power of tech giants will be important, the Bank of Canada deputy says
Deflation tends to de-anchor expectations – BIS paper
Deflationary episodes seem to render expectations lower and more backward-looking
Standard measures understate slack in European labour markets – ECB paper
Researchers use survey data from 24 countries to track effects of sovereign debt crisis
Globalisation may reduce surpluses’ negative effects – paper
Nations recording surpluses do not necessarily create imbalances abroad, argues analysis
Cœuré: ‘three lines of defence’ needed to protect ECB
The ECB executive board member says without reforms the ECB may end up having to “test the limits of its mandate”
Misinterpreting commodity price swings can be damaging – BIS paper
Whether movements are down to supply shocks or changes in global demand matters for policy, and mistakes can be procyclical when central banks act together
Inflation falls in the euro area despite stronger growth
Annual price increases expected to fall to 1.3% in January, Eurostat says
Finnish paper examines 19th century Chinese lending
Loans to officials show how banks can enforce repayment despite hostile legal environment
Central bank communications risk circularity, says BIS paper
Policy communications influence market prices and market prices influence policy, warn Stephen Morris and Hyun Song Shin
Rebased ‘Maddison’ data reshapes economic history
New approach to measuring GDP per capita generates fresh insights from the long-run growth database
Liberalising services trade could tackle imbalances – BoE paper
Finding ways of reducing barriers to services trade could substantially cut imbalances