Economics
ESM hails Greece’s progress in third bailout
The country should exit the programme in August as growth accelerates and bond yields fall
Menon warns of Singapore's ‘demographic trilemma’
MAS chief says Singapore “must accept” slower growth of the labour force, but should also face up to the need for solutions
Fed paper models risk-taking channel of monetary policy
Model in which monetary expansion increases risk-taking appears to fit with the data
BIS paper: unconventional policies may have depressed natural rate
Economists find shifts in estimates of the natural rate co-move with unexpected changes in unconventional policy
Spanish paper analyses determinants of private saving
Fiscal, demographic, financial and income effects are key, researchers find
Bundesbank panellists call for change in German ‘mindset’
Mario Monti says he would like to free Germans from their economic “straightjacket”, while Benoît Cœuré hints at need for rebalancing
Big data can give valuable labour market signal – Fed paper
High-frequency private payroll data is useful in forecasting the labour market, researchers find
BoE economists challenge conventional wisdom on yield curve
Steeper curve may not be as good for bank profitability as widely believed
German savings banks may buy debt to gain political favour, ECB paper says
Research warns this behaviour increases interdependence between banks and governments
BoE’s Tenreyro sees hopeful signs for UK productivity
Many factors dragging on productivity may soon start to fade, MPC member says, though the UK seems to be missing out on a global investment boom
‘Goldilocks economy’ implies bears may not be far away – Menon
Despite reasons for optimism, “three grumpy bears” may soon return, says MAS chief
Economists need to better understand macrofinancial links – BIS paper
Stijn Claessens and Ayhan Kose call for “new generation of models” among other research to solve ongoing puzzles
Combined nowcasts can improve GDP estimates – paper
Paper compares performance of nowcast models in estimating GDP from 2016–2015
Dudley warns Trump tax plan leaves US finances ‘unsustainable’
New York Fed chief says policymakers may have to tighten rates harder to offset stimulus
Policymakers should increase credit to ‘single-bank firms’ – paper
Researchers examine “unique natural experiment” of 2012 change to ECB’s QE policies
BIS paper explores effects of global factors on inflation
Authors find impact of global factors is mainly temporary, but the effects appear more significant for countries without long-established inflation targets
Higher inflation in Norway supports tighter outlook
Norges Bank brings forward its first planned rate hike to late 2018
Fall in hours worked can flatten Phillips curve, Italian paper says
Changes to “intensive margin of labour utilisation” may make inflation less responsive to employment
Macroeconomics suffers from blind spot, says Borio
Misallocated resources can explain a large part of recent productivity slowdowns, but thinking in aggregate terms obscures this, says BIS economist
Cyclical price analysis needs major improvements – ECB paper
Researchers say DSGE models’ handling of housing prices is subject to errors
Book notes: The End of Theory, by Richard Bookstaber
Bookstaber provides an entertaining introduction to agent-based modelling – a potential new front for economics
BIS paper asks what makes emerging market banks profitable
Both bank-specific and economy-wide factors affect banks’ profitability, authors find
Veteran economists weigh in on ‘rebuilding’ macro theory
Economists including Olivier Blanchard, Andy Haldane and Simon Wren-Lewis tackle the question of how – and whether – to save the DSGE model
Older workforce will reduce Danish growth, central bank says
Reforms to expand labour supply are needed to offset negative effects of demography