Economics
Consultancy and advisory services provider of the year (core): BearingPoint
BearingPoint’s consultants received high praise for their work in helping central banks manage large volumes of regulatory data, and the firm’s software underwent an upgrade in 2016
IMF authors build network model of trade fragility
Network theory helps authors unpick the effects of a supply shock on the “highly interconnected” global trade system
Asia needs new growth model – BoJ’s Kuroda
Region can no longer serve as “the workshop of the world” as the trade in goods slows down, says the Bank of Japan governor
Fed’s Fischer: econometric models are still flawed
US Fed vice-chair says models still cannot capture the complexities and rapid evolution of the economy – despite his hopes as an undergraduate
Economics in central banking: Leo Krippner
His work on term structure modelling has helped central bank policy-makers to track the effects of unconventional policies and it raises many interesting possibilities for future research
New tax measures biggest threat to Jamaican inflation
Increases in income tax threshold will impact inflation, latest report warns; exchange rate depreciation and international oil prices are also a concern
Monetary aggregates useful as eurozone inflation predictor – paper
“Predictive content” of monetary aggregates has improved since 2012, ECB paper says
Consumption shows asymmetric response to shocks – BoE paper
Households appear to respond more strongly to temporary negative shocks than positive ones, and effects are different for borrowers and savers
ZLB magnifies impacts of uncertainty shocks, paper says
Differences caused by zero lower bound are “economically important”, researchers say
Fed paper flags risk of low rates misallocating capital
Where firms rely heavily on intangible capital, lower rates could harm firms’ investment and contribute to secular stagnation, economists warn
Mongolia sees hope of recovery after rough year
The commodity reliant country faced slowing growth and inflation in 2016, but the outlook for this year is somewhat brighter
GDP calculation needs double deflation, says IMF paper
Single deflation techniques introduce errors which can be significant, authors argue, concluding all nations should use double deflation
Energy base effects pushing recent eurozone inflation – ECB
Effect estimated to be negative for much of second half of 2017
Banks may relax scrutiny of securitised loans – ECB paper
The credit quality of euro-denominated loans falls after securitisation, researchers say
Poloz considers the future of economic modelling
Theoretical and empirical two-pronged approach likely to stay, governor says, though economists are still on the hunt for the “holy grail” single model
Fiscal rules fail to tackle EU policy biases – IMF research
Many biases relate to political economy factors, and should be tackled by future adjustments to the governance framework, IMF economists say
Brexit pain may be coming – panel
Former Bank of England officials warn of fading consumer spending and investment
BIS authors identify tipping point in household debt impact
Researchers trace the effects of household debt on the real economy, identifying thresholds beyond which the long-run impact on consumption and growth intensifies
Dominican Central Bank reports growth of 6.6%
Provisional data from the bank shows it is the fastest growing within the region for the fourth year in a row; agriculture sector fuelling rapid growth
Italian inflation pressures are weakening – ECB paper
Price cuts are more common for manufactured goods, the researchers say, while price increases for services are slowing
ECB papers examine low inflation
Researchers differ over eurozone inflation expectations
Helicopter money would have little impact, Dutch paper says
Household survey suggests little impact on inflation expectations, researchers argue
Irish governor calls for better international finance data
Links between holders and issuers of instruments are badly understood, Lane says
CLS signs MoU with Chinese think-tank
The forex utility will work with the National Institution for Financial Development to support the renminbi’s internationalisation