Economics
New IMF data sheds light on interwar instability
Instrument-level data highlights how the network structure of debts contributed to collapse
St Louis Fed researchers deconstruct US inflation
Slower growth in energy, healthcare and housing prices contributed to lower inflation in recent expansion, researchers find
Cross-border claims growing at fastest rate since crisis – BIS
Non-banks continue to see the fastest growth, latest international banking data shows
Inside the ECB’s upgraded multi-country model
ECB-Base sets the blueprint for a new semi-structural workhorse model of the eurozone
BdF paper uses professional forecasts to improve BVAR model
Authors use “entropic tilting and soft conditioning” to incorporate survey data into model
Bundesbank: Germany may have entered recession
Report says manufacturing output fell markedly in the third quarter, despite domestic resilience
BdF paper looks at digital currency and remuneration
Remuneration is key consideration for design of central bank-issued digital currencies, paper argues
King calls for radical shake-up to escape ‘low-growth trap’
Central bank models fail to appreciate demand-side secular stagnation; IMF could help to drive country-specific policies to reallocate resources
Bank of Spain paper looks at supply chains’ impact on investment
Greater value chain integration has strong impact on foreign and domestic investment, paper finds
Exchange rate shocks gaining importance for eurozone inflation – research
Core inflation less influenced by exogenous factors, Bank of Spain research paper says
Large forex dealers are key to asset pricing – Bundesbank paper
Capital ratios of large forex dealers are important in explaining asset price movements, paper says
Strong dollar can be bad for trade – BIS paper
Textbook theory does not always hold due to the effect of global value chains, authors say
BoE’s Vlieghe: central banks must focus on ‘debt, demographics and distribution’
Risk-based approach could be helpful in thinking about the impact on rates, policy-maker says
IMF warns of ‘synchronised slowdown’ as it cuts forecasts
Fund revises down growth prospects for 2019–20 and calls for action on financial vulnerabilities
Interbank networks may be too decentralised – BoE paper
Model of how networks develop implies laissez-faire may not be optimum policy
Financial cycle useful for forecasting recessions – BIS paper
Measures of the financial cycle may be better predictors of recession than standard metrics
There are better ways to solve China trade dispute – Atlanta Fed economist
It is “underappreciated” that the Chinese currency is devalued, Tao Zha says
Central banks must use “unconstrained” negative rates, Rogoff tells ECB
Policy-makers must ensure cash depreciates against electronic money, or face failure, Rogoff says
ECB paper takes new approach to modelling lower bound
Model uses regime-switching approach to look at returns on short-term bond yields
Borio and co-authors attack concept of natural interest rate
BIS paper sets out a model in which “monetary policy hysteresis” can do lasting damage to the economy
Machine learning can help spot bank distress – BoE paper
Use of confidential data helps catch distress early, and ML can cope with complexity, authors say
IMF paper tests conventional wisdom on economic and financial cycles
World cycles have not become stronger during globalisation period, researchers find
Fed can now keep rates on hold, senior official says
Recent cuts have provided greater assurance Fed will hit inflation target, Charles Evans says