Economics
Covid-19 highlighted machine learning model limits – BoE research
Economic downturn could not have been forecast on the basis of data alone, BoE says
Adding QE can fix New Keynesian models – BoE paper
“Mild adjustments” to balance sheet are enough to avoid paradoxical results, authors find
IMF chief economist has ‘no concerns’ over inflation in US
Biden plan likely to cause 2.25% inflation, within Fed’s framework, Gopinath says
Inflation climbs in UK and Canada
Headline figures increased year on year by 0.7% in the UK and 1% in Canada
Kenya strikes deal on $2.4 billion IMF package
“Multi-year effort” required to stabilise public finances and boost growth
Virus impacts consumer credit more than restrictions – Fed paper
“Pandemic itself” was main driver of credit contraction in US, not lockdowns, paper finds
Shadow banks play key role in business cycle – BoE paper
Contraction in securitisation can spill into wider credit conditions, researchers say
Paper finds little evidence of long-term scarring
Richmond Fed research finds short-term demand shocks rarely create hysteresis
Evidence of central bank research bias is ‘mixed’ – RBA paper
Results contrast with another recent study that found bias in research on QE
The changing data landscape: Part 2
Central Banking speaks to Philip Abradu-Otoo, Juan José Ospina and Howard Chang about whether there is a need to change underlying infrastructure to bolster data-driven policy-making
Central banks look to shockproof models in wake of Covid-19
The Covid-19 crisis caused many central bank models to break down. Economists at the St Louis Fed, Bank of Spain and ECB were quick to innovate and say they will continue testing new tools
Frequent recessions push up US unemployment rate – paper
Cleveland Fed research says two decades of growth would produce 3.6% unemployment
ECB paper analyses US home ownership
Labour market dynamics and rising house prices account for generational inequality, researcher says
BIS paper seeks to overcome flawed Chinese growth statistics
Authors use regional data to circumvent “flat” GDP time series
Latin American economies threatened by pandemic resurgence – IMF
Western hemisphere chief warns recovery is uneven and under threat
Fed small business survey paints grim picture
Most small businesses report revenue declines; many fear collapse without government aid
Epidemics cause delayed political unrest – IMF paper
Infectious disease outbreaks lead to upheaval after health crisis has passed, researchers say
IMF grants Tonga $10 million emergency loan
Fund’s Article IV report expresses concern about banking sector; predicts GDP contraction
National statistical agencies must measure informal economy – IMF
Fund outlines new framework for informal economy consistent with GDP methodology
Reserve Bank of Australia launches A$100bn in new QE
Australian central bank surprises analysts with easing measure, despite more hopeful macroeconomic forecast
Monetary unions might benefit from taxing external debt – DNB paper
Policy would reduce adverse effects of shocks to risk premia on sovereign debt, researchers find
More capital could increase lending during pandemic – paper
Philadelphia Fed research finds capital injections and lower requirements would both increase lending