Economics
IMF economist: central banks may have misdiagnosed secular slowdown
Lower neutral rates may have been caused by central banks lowering rates, researcher says
Researchers use option prices to gauge ZLB risk – San Fran Fed
Chance of rates hitting zero lower bound by the end of next year is 16%, researchers find
Book notes: Economics for the common good, by Jean Tirole
The book should be well received amid the recent rise in populism
Finnish paper looks at Chinese currency swap agreements
Bilateral swap agreements increase settlement of trade transactions in renminbi – researchers
BIS authors detail new data on non-bank exposures
Banks have highly concentrated exposures to non-financial counterparties, researchers say
Emir data can give valuable insights on rate expectations – ECB paper
New methodology uses data on OTC transactions to track market expectations of interest rates
Fed researchers model impact of recent trade uncertainty
Trade uncertainty could account for a 1–2% decline in US investment, researchers say
BoE paper explores collateral’s impact on labour market
Collateral value affects hiring decisions by small businesses, authors find
Inflation models must pay more attention to globalisation – Brookings paper
Global factors more important for some inflation measures since 2008 financial crisis, researcher finds
RBI’s Das weighs up external economic threats
India’s external sector is resilient, but capital flows have been volatile and trade weak, governor says
Barbados launches new statistics hub
Central bank simplifies data publications for “man on the street” and standardises bank reporting
Economists use payments data to build high-speed indicator
Team says transaction-based metric gives quick insight into consumer spending
Bank of Israel proposes measures to stabilise social security system
Benefit payments set to rise faster than GDP in the coming decades, warns central bank
Central banks are ‘riders on the storm’, say Jordà and Taylor
Central banks control less than half the overall variation in interest rates, authors find
Book notes: Narrative economics, by Robert Shiller
The book is good fun to read, but some elements are a little disappointing
‘Non-salient fees’ matter for mortgage pricing – BoE paper
Many borrowers appear to be less sensitive to fees than to interest rates, and firms exploit this
High public debt hampers fiscal stimulus in eurozone – Bank of Portugal research
High debt deepens crises, increases spillover effects and cuts scope for counter-cyclical fiscal policy
Trade uncertainty ‘surging’ in many countries, IMF warns
New IMF index tracks trade uncertainty across the globe
Machine learning can produce better forecasts – RBI paper
ML tends to outperform standard models, but combining forecasts is best, authors say
IMF research flags urgent need for climate policy framework
Co-ordination of fiscal, financial and monetary instruments will be needed, say authors
Bank of Israel research derives growth estimate from survey data
Researchers construct real-time indicator that can be produced earlier than nowcasts
30 years of forecasting: have central banks learned anything?
Forecasting models are constantly being upgraded, but forecast errors are still persistent. What more can central banks do?
BoE paper models exchange rates with private money creation
Uncovered interest parity does a poor job of explaining exchange rates on its own, authors say
BIS authors offer advice on escaping low inflation trap
Luiz Pereira da Silva and co-authors say “snapback” unlikely, given changing labour markets