Covid-19 causes bigger growth forecast errors

But central banks perform better at forecasting inflation

The Covid pandemic seems to have been a major factor in high forecast errors for growth in the Economics Benchmarks 2021.

GDP growth forecast errors were on average 2.2 percentage points for advanced economies and 2.9pp for emerging markets. That is notably higher than the 2020 benchmark, when errors were 0.6pp for advanced economies, and 0.8pp for emerging markets.

On inflation, central banks were much more accurate. Those in advanced economies clocked errors of just 0.3pp, on average, while

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