Economics
BoI paper presents new method for eurozone inflation forecasts
Model works well to predict inflation using data from bloc’s four largest economies, authors say
IMF supports Cabo Verde’s reforms with new programme
IMF supports monetary policy reform and says the central bank must improve supervision and comms
NBER paper outlines ‘four-equation model’
Authors expand the textbook three-equation model to account for unconventional monetary policy; extra policy tool is necessary to overcome credit shocks
Regulators need ‘stick and carrot’ to deal with NPLs – BoI paper
Optimal policy combines capital transfers and NPL disposals to wipe out owners’ rents – researchers
BIS paper looks at low returns on safe assets
Changing risk perceptions explain growing wedge between safe and risky assets, authors say
ECB paper presents new approach to modelling LTV caps
Agent-based model’s results show “subprime” segment to eurozone housing markets – researchers
Mexican peso falls on finance minister resignation
Crisis complicates inflation outlook and fuels fear of political interference in independent institutions
BdF paper models tax evasion’s impact on sovereign default
Widespread tax evasion can undermine austerity plans imposed by donors, argue researchers
Trade tensions set to harm long-term US growth – IMF paper
Output would decline even if China voluntarily limits its exports to the US
BIS papers weigh up ongoing risks to global stability
Papers from 2018 AGM include contributions from Forbes, Tucker, Gourinchas and Rey
‘Heterogeneous beliefs’ can improve models of inflation – BoE paper
Authors break down inflation expectations in search of additional forward-looking information
Lagarde reiterates call for greater international co-ordination
“We need a trading system fit for today’s world,” IMF chief says after G20 summit
RBI set to benefit from granular data warehouse – Das
Central bank’s new “data access lab” will support innovative research, governor says
Energy prices drive inflation interdependence – research
Core inflation is much less co-ordinated across advanced economies, Bank of Spain paper finds
Canada facing broad-based inflationary pressures, data suggests
Some analysts say immediate rate hikes unlikely despite price rises
Spanish and Italian labour markets still slack – ECB paper
Researchers use "Beveridge curve" to gauge efficiency of eurozone labour markets
Bundesbank paper presents new model of banks’ risk-taking
Traditional models make error in assuming that banks choose fixed-size portfolios, authors argue
Akerlof warns economics is biased against methods seen as ‘soft’
Nobel prize-winner says bias leads to “sins of omission” in economic research
Construction trends can predict yield curve inversions – St Louis Fed
Housebuilding expectations should be considered when forecasting economic activity, researchers say
Canada not looking to change exchange regime in 2021 review – Schembri
Deputy governor highlights benefits to economy since adopting regime
NY Fed researchers develop new natural rate of unemployment measure
Estimate is 50–60 basis points lower than other mainstream estimates
High-frequency trading can harm market liquidity – ECB paper
Researcher finds increased competition can lead to rise in speculative strategies
BCRA president admits inflation still too high
Outlook requires continued ultra-tight monetary policy, says central bank president
Putting modern monetary theory to the test
Sayuri Shirai asks whether MMT might hold the solution to Japan’s stagnation