Economics
US may face ‘jobless recovery’ despite huge stimulus
Economists warn fiscal stimulus has been poorly targeted; Ben Bernanke defends Fed policy
Tourism acts as Covid-19 amplifier in the eurozone
Shock is increasing fragmentation risks in the region due to its uneven effect across countries
Atlanta Fed creates new mortgage tool to track forbearance
Dashboard will provide policy-makers with data on which regions are using forbearance in response to Covid-19
Denmark’s central bank says household wealth is higher than pre-Covid
Citizens are wealthier despite Covid-19, but wealth distribution remains uneven
NBER paper seeks lessons for home working in Industrial Revolution
Move to remote working could be undermined by organisational problems, authors warn
Covid-19 likely harms productivity – BoE paper
Private sector could lose 5% of its productivity in Q4 this year, authors estimate
Paper lays groundwork for Canadian ‘Hank’ model
Author estimates “earnings process” as step towards heterogeneous agent modelling
Size matters for central bank research publishing
Staff numbers have strongest association with central banks’ research output
Economics Benchmarks 2020 report – new insights on research, policy and statistics
Benchmarking data sheds light on governance, salaries, forecasting, research, publications and more
Administrative data is most popular alternative data source
Central banks make use of a wide range of non-traditional data sources
Central banks use alt data mainly for research
Almost all respondents make use of alternative data in at least one application
Economists earn more than number-crunchers at central banks
On average, statisticians take home 88% of what economists earn
High-income central banks offer more training for economists
Over 52% sponsor economics/statistics staff to undertake PhDs; 100% sponsor other training
Few central banks forecast policy rates
Economics Benchmarks 2020 highlights wide variation in variables forecast by central banks
Central banks rotate economics staff frequently
Economists typically spend only small portion of time on own research; opportunities for secondment abound
Advanced economies employ greater share of PhD economists
But both advanced- and emerging-economy central banks devote similar staffing to research
Central banks play key role in sourcing and sharing data
Institutions gather data from many sources and most share it with external researchers
Climate change on the agenda for most economics departments
Central banks explore a wide range of topics, with some differences between advanced economies and EMEs
Few central banks collaborate with private-sector researchers
Collaborations are common with academia, especially in advanced economies
Agent-based models remain rare among economics departments
Economics Benchmarks 2020 highlights the varied applications of different model types at central banks
Forecast errors marginally higher for growth than inflation
Data shows contrast between advanced and emerging economies
Eurozone unemployment falls slightly
Unemployment falls to 8.4%, but youth joblessness is much higher at 18%
Income levels have little bearing on economics staffing
European central banks have on average more staff in statistics; non-European institutions have more research economists
Early estimate says eurozone inflation staying put
Eurostat estimates for November show core inflation also remained stable at 0.2%