Economics
Yield curve models overstate chances of US recession – ECB research
Models need to account for effects of QE asset purchases on bond premia, authors say
Fed forecasters now less optimistic on growth – San Fran Fed paper
Forecasters have eliminated “overoptimism” bias in recent years, researchers find
RBA and Bank of Korea expand local currency swap agreement
The initial deal was signed in 2014 and has been renewed every three years
UK financial market has never been ‘cleaner’, says FCA official
New business strategy has helped regulator monitor insider trading; additional metric helps analyse data from transactions previously out of reach
ECB paper looks at professional inflation forecasters
No statistically significant evidence of some forecasters being worse than others, researcher says
Eurozone banks increase illiquid assets after solvency shocks – DNB paper
Shift in asset holdings could create asset price distortions after banking crises, researchers say
De Guindos stresses uncertainty from coronavirus outbreak
Powell and Carney said Fed and BoE are closely monitoring the virus’s impact on the economy
Economics Nobel winners feature in new podcast series
Sveriges Riksbank supports interviews featuring Richard Thaler, Angus Deaton and Paul Romer
IMF delays Argentina forecasts due to uncertainty
Current forecast shows economy contracting by 1.3% in 2021 and inflation falling to 17%
RBNZ economists look to improve GDP statistics
“GDPplus” has several advantages over standard GDP statistics, authors say
Debt securities still key in capital flows to EMEs – BIS
Latest global liquidity statistics show ongoing growth in euro and dollar liquidity
Global cross-border lending growth at highest rate since 2008
Bank claims continued to grow “rapidly” in Q3 2019, latest BIS figures show
Angola’s central bank establishes inflation expectation indicators
Central bank issues new surveys to gather information on prices following exchange rate liberalisation
Remittances can cause volatility if concentrated – IMF paper
Flows of remittances are broadly stabilising for the receiving country, but not if they are too concentrated, paper finds
Paper takes ‘Hank’ approach to eurozone policy transmission
Authors identify three key dimensions of household heterogeneity
IMF cuts forecast again, but says slowdown may be ending
Fresh downward revision to growth outlook set against “tentative stabilisation”, says Gita Gopinath
Paper models monetary policy in a ‘Hank’ framework
Authors combine micro and macro “moments”, finding investment is “crucial” to policy transmission
Spanish governor calls for consolidation and reforms to preserve growth
Hernández de Cos highlights Spain’s stronger export sector after financial crisis
BIS statistics committee to focus on fintech and big data in 2020
Irving Fisher Committee plans to complete its fintech work and update a 2015 survey
CAR renews IMF support amid ‘volatile’ security situation
New three-year deal designed to shore up peace agreement
Demographic change could mark end of economic growth – NBER paper
Shrinking populations could cause knowledge and living standards to stagnate, author says
ECB paper looks at role of uncertainty in central bank comms
Researchers use machine learning to study market reactions to BoE inflation reports
Inflation expectations risk continuing downward trend – John Williams
New York Fed president urges policy-makers to hold themselves accountable for below-target inflation