Growth
BoE governor gives optimistic forecast about scenario approach
Bailey says new method allows for better projections, given growing frequency of ‘black swans’
The cost of ‘US liberation’
Stephen Millard outlines NIESR’s latest analysis of the Trump tariffs, as risks tilt to the downside
Fed holds rates as experts sound alarm over stagflation
FOMC says risks have risen on both the employment and inflation sides of its mandate
Falling oil prices bode ill for Russia – Bank of Finland blog
Higher deficits may cause authorities to engage in monetary financing, says Heli Simola
Experts divided over contraction in US economy
Ex-NY Fed chief says latest figures are an anomaly, though others point to Trump policies’ impact
Eurozone fiscal policies grew real GDP, dampened inflation – ECB
However, Covid-era policies led to higher deficits and debt in years following pandemic, research finds
Strong economy will protect India from trade tensions – RBI
Bank derives optimism from service exports and lower food prices in latest State of the Economy report
IMF cuts forecasts as tariffs add to high uncertainty
World economic outlook sours after Trump tariffs
Researchers build ‘most comprehensive’ global macro database
Long-term data reveals financial crises can harm growth for half a century
Bank of Korea holds rates at 2.75%
Growth sluggish and inflation on target but central bank needs more time to judge tariff effects
Philippines resumes easing cycle with quarter-point cut
Inflation slows but growth risks increase amid “more challenging” external environment, BSP says
New Zealand makes rate cut in response to tariffs
RBNZ eases policy by 25bp and points to trade war’s downside risks to growth
‘Declaring war on the world economy’: economists react to Trump tariffs
Early estimates point to stagflation in US, as tariffs hit highest level since early 20th century
World Bank says Nepal’s economy will grow, despite shocks
Benign inflation and loose monetary policy to aid growth, says institution
Kganyago continues push to lower Sarb inflation target
Economists back South Africa’s central bank governor, but finance minister remains sceptical
Mexico’s central bank cuts rates by 50bp
Economist says last month’s uptick in inflation means Banxico should have held
Hungary holds rates amid continuing upside risks to inflation
MNB points to geopolitical and trade uncertainty in explaining first policy decision under new governor
AI crucial for driving growth, says BoE governor
Bailey compares technology’s transformative potential to advances of industrial revolution
Can Bessent lower 10-year yields? Investors have their doubts
Unconventional tools won’t sway bond markets, say buy-siders, with yields as likely to go higher as lower
BNM governor: trade uncertainty creates obstacles to growth
Central bank cannot be complacent amid “unpredictable” external environment, says Rasheed
FOMC holds rates amid uncertainty and stagflation risks
Fed chair Jay Powell says inertia also a factor as committee opts for caution
Indonesia holds rates after stock market rout
BI opts to defend exchange rate as country records deflation for first time in 25 years
Bank of Japan holds rates amid trade uncertainty
Strong wage growth underpins economic recovery but central bank remains wary of US tariffs