Growth
NBER paper says geopolitical risk impacts consumer expectations
ECB survey questions help establish causal link between Russia-Ukraine war and spending plans
Thai central bank warns country’s SMEs vulnerable to US tariffs
Bank of Thailand monetary policy committee signals further easing likely, minutes show
Philippines eases policy 25bp to 5% ‘Goldilocks zone’
BSP governor says one more cut likely this year as bank cites risks posed by US trade policy
Climate change harming global economy – BoK study
Study finds high income countries more vulnerable to climate change, in contrast to other research
China keeps benchmark lending rates unchanged for third month
Economists predicted hold as PBoC turns to other means for credit growth
New Zealand cuts policy rate as economic recovery ‘stalls’
Central bank cuts policy rate 25bp saying global uncertainty caused economic slowdown
Britain’s ‘knife-edged’ economy is dividing BoE rate-setters
Chief economist and deputy governor for monetary policy both outvoted on MPC for first time since 2007
Norges Bank strikes hawkish tone with rates hold
Inflation “in line” with June projection and two cuts still on table for this year, central bank says
Weak productivity reduced output in Australia by up to 3% – study
RBA paper says decline has “profound implications” for citizens’ welfare
China to continue consumption push with loan interest subsidies
PBoC says plan aligns with government policy to increase consumer spending
Australia cuts rates by 25bp as expected
RBA governor says inflation within target, as bank’s forecasts assume further cuts
China analysts expect moderate rate cuts in H2
PBoC mirrors politburo stance in mid-year meeting while eyeing further internationalisation of yuan
Monetary policy alone will not solve Korea’s problems – paper
Study calls for structural changes to tackle ageing population, high debt and low growth
Book notes: Inflation, by Mark Blyth and Nicolò Fraccaroli
An accessible explainer about the narratives surrounding inflation – and who it benefits
Ageing societies limit monetary policy space – BoK study
“Super aged” populations cut growth and inflation, and weaken banking sector, authors say
Fed holds rates, despite pressure from White House
Experts say stance is in response to Trump’s trade policies and lament his attacks on central bank
BNM cuts growth forecast due to tariff uncertainty
However, Malaysia’s central bank says economy is on “strong footing” amid threat of 25% US levy
Russia cuts rates by 200bp, citing moderation in inflation
Experts say central bank waited until expectations had moderated and cut may support country’s lenders
Ukraine opts to keep rates higher for longer
Central bank holds at 15.5% and says policy must remain “rather tight” if 5% inflation target is to be met
Judy Shelton on gold, tariffs and where the Fed went wrong
The potential successor to Jerome Powell discusses why she thinks the Fed is too powerful, why her stance on gold is not a ‘crank’ position, and why she feels events have vindicated her and president Trump on the need for rate cuts
Indonesia eases policy rate after Trump announces 19% tariff
Central bank says 25bp cut was needed to support economy amid weak global outlook
MAS expects slower growth in Singapore’s financial sector
Central bank says major impact from tariffs has yet to emerge at release of annual report
Tobias Adrian on the integrated policy framework amid tariff shocks
The IMF’s financial counsellor speaks about policy reaction functions to supply and demand shocks, scenario-based analyses, Treasury market dynamics and emerging market resilience
IMF praises Nigeria’s FX reforms
Fund’s article IV review also calls on central bank to introduce disinflation path