Record hiring needed to reach pre-crisis unemployment by end-2021 – paper

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Shell Jiang

Returning to pre-pandemic levels of unemployment by the end of 2021 would require rates of hiring never seen before, research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco finds.

Over 38 million people have filed for unemployment benefits since mid-March and unemployment rose to a post-war record of 14.7% in March, up from 3.7% in February.

Using historical unemployment patterns, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Robert Valletta examine the possible path for unemployment throughout 2021.


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