RBI economists build nowcast using dynamic factor model
Economists at the Reserve Bank of India have developed a “nowcast” of Indian GDP growth using a dynamic factor model, which they say gives a good indication of the current slowdown.
As is the case worldwide, headline GDP figures for India are published with a lag, creating challenges for policy-makers.
In a working paper, Soumya Bhadury, Saurabh Ghosh and Pankaj Kumar identify 12 high-frequency indicators that can give a good estimate of GDP. These are chosen for their strength in tracking
Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.
To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@centralbanking.com or view our subscription options here: http://subscriptions.centralbanking.com/subscribe
You are currently unable to print this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. Printing this content is for the sole use of the Authorised User (named subscriber), as outlined in our terms and conditions - https://www.infopro-insight.com/terms-conditions/insight-subscriptions/
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. Copying this content is for the sole use of the Authorised User (named subscriber), as outlined in our terms and conditions - https://www.infopro-insight.com/terms-conditions/insight-subscriptions/
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
More on Economic modelling
Hank model reveals monetary non-neutrality
Inequality and zero lower bound suggest monetary policy can impact long-term real rates
BoE adjusting main models after forecast misses
Bailey says policy-makers decided to “aim off” main forecast after repeated errors
Bank of Israel warns political turmoil could hit GDP
Central bank slows cycle with 25bp hike, raising key rate to 4.5%
BIS paper lays out ‘two-regime’ model of inflation
Framework could help central banks recognise and respond to bouts of higher inflation
Agent-based models shed light on CBDC dynamics
Take-up could be as high as 25% of total money, but depends on design choices, IMF research finds
Wanted: radical ideas for inflation modelling
Hedge funds echo Mervyn King’s calls for a new approach to inflation modelling post-2022 crisis
Bank of Thailand governor calls for better inflation model
Phillips curve model under-predicts inflation, argues governor Sethaput
Christopher Sims on modelling the inflation surge
Unprecedented shocks creates major challenges for forecasters, the Nobel prize-winning economist says