Economists race to merge epidemiology and macro
Covid-19 has created two crises: one in health, the other in the economy. For central bankers, the two are inextricably linked, but existing tools for forecasting economic indicators are ill-prepared for the complexities of a pandemic.
There are at least two pressing problems for economists to solve.
The first – a more achievable goal in the short term – is to design rule-of-thumb policies that can keep the economy running as efficiently as possible while saving lives through social distancing
Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.
To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@centralbanking.com or view our subscription options here: http://subscriptions.centralbanking.com/subscribe
You are currently unable to print this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. Printing this content is for the sole use of the Authorised User (named subscriber), as outlined in our terms and conditions - https://www.infopro-insight.com/terms-conditions/insight-subscriptions/
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. Copying this content is for the sole use of the Authorised User (named subscriber), as outlined in our terms and conditions - https://www.infopro-insight.com/terms-conditions/insight-subscriptions/
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
More on Economic modelling
BIS paper lays out ‘two-regime’ model of inflation
Framework could help central banks recognise and respond to bouts of higher inflation
Agent-based models shed light on CBDC dynamics
Take-up could be as high as 25% of total money, but depends on design choices, IMF research finds
Wanted: radical ideas for inflation modelling
Hedge funds echo Mervyn King’s calls for a new approach to inflation modelling post-2022 crisis
Bank of Thailand governor calls for better inflation model
Phillips curve model under-predicts inflation, argues governor Sethaput
Christopher Sims on modelling the inflation surge
Unprecedented shocks creates major challenges for forecasters, the Nobel prize-winning economist says
IMF publishes sober outlook for 2023
“Worst is yet to come”, says chief economist
IMF paper offers ‘fear-based theory’ of economy
Central banks risk distorting the economy if they don’t move interest rates to offset “fear cycle”
RBA’s Lowe admits inflation models need rethink
Governor acknowledges forecasting mistakes but rejects calls to resign