Emerging markets face L-shaped recession – paper

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Emerging markets could face an L-shaped recession due to Covid-19, while advanced economies may see a V-shaped pattern, research published by the Central Bank of Colombia finds.

In the working paper, Javier Gómez-Pineda combines growth forecasts and a structural model to try and understand how different economies will be affected by Covid-19. He works backwards from the forecast to map out plausible demand and supply shocks.

The results imply both advanced and emerging economies face four

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