Forecasting
Central Banking Awards 2022: final winners unveiled
Prizes for Central bank of the year, Lifetime achievement, Transparency, Economics and more
Transparency: Czech National Bank
New monetary policy report, and publication of attributed minutes and economic model raise the bar for disclosure
Currency services: De La Rue
Printing doyen expanded capacity, functionality and market share amid corporate turnaround
Bailey seeks to clarify controversial comments on wage restraint
BoE governor says firms need to curb price rises to limit impact on poorest households
Half of fintech benchmarks respondents use AI/ML tools
Richer nations more likely to use artificial intelligence
Turkish central bank holds main rate despite high inflation
Committee says it expects inflation trend to reverse soon, as headline figure nears 50%
Sarb raises rates 25 basis points as inflation rises
MPC votes by four to one for hike, as inflation nears top of target range
Costa Rica orders second consecutive rate hike
Inflation remains within target band but risks “lean to the upside”, board says
IMF pares back forecasts as world faces ‘multiple challenges’
Omicron variant, supply disruptions and inflation threaten to hold back recovery, says Gita Gopinath
RBA develops new method of modelling financial sector
Approach takes Martin model “beyond the existing macroeconometric frontier”, say researchers
Fed keeps investors guessing on speed and endpoint of tightening
Investors generally agree the Fed will tighten policy, but how much and when are unclear
Currency Benchmarks 2021 – presentation
Central Banking’s currency subject matter specialist Rachael King speaks with Chris Jeffery about circulation, impact of Covid-19, forecasting, costs and resourcing, security and design, sustainability, and more
UK inflation hits 30-year high
Figure is now highest since CPI series began, driven by energy and food prices
BoJ sees emerging signs of inflation in Japan
Central bank says inflationary risks are now “generally balanced”
Economics Benchmarks 2021 report – executive summary
Covid-19 coloured central banks’ views on the governance of their economics function in the past year, from research topics to forecasting, data, publications and more
Fed’s Waller says federal funds rate should rise soon after QE ends
Fed governor hints at tighter policy and offers lessons from the pandemic
IMF mission to leave Brazil in June
Announcement follows criticism by finance minister of IMF forecasts
Economics Benchmarks 2021 report – making sense of the modern economy
Covid-19 coloured central banks’ views on the governance of their economics function in the past year, from research topics to forecasting, data, publications and more
Advanced economies draw on wider range of models
DSGE models and newer techniques more common at advanced economy central banks
The matter of minutes: Why open up private deliberations?
Many central banks publish records of MPC meetings, but far fewer publish vote tallies. Where should public scrutiny stop?
Quarterly forecast updates predominate
Frequency of forecasts varies more widely in emerging markets
Alternative data fuels central bank research
Important research areas include monetary transmission, exchange rates, digitisation, SMEs and climate change, against the backdrop of Covid
Pandemic spurred use of alternative data
Advanced and emerging market economies prioritise different applications
Currency Benchmarks 2021 report – executive summary
Perspectives on staffing, circulation, forecasting, note security and composition, outsourcing and more