Forecasting
Trinidad and Tobago prime minister ridicules central bank’s migrant figures
Acting PM says he has “no idea” how central bank estimated cost of migrant crisis
San Francisco Fed researcher seeks to improve Phillips curve
Introducing an “interaction variable” can increase predictive performance, researcher says
Time for resilience
Events that impact markets have made it crucial to build resilient portfolios that are aware of downside risks. BlackRock explores the importance of protection in downturn scenarios for reserve managers.
Central banks urged to take four key climate actions
Network for Greening the Financial System releases its first comprehensive report
Namibia’s central bank slashes economic growth forecast
Bank of Namibia reduces predicted GDP growth to just 0.3%
Google data can underpin eurozone GDP nowcasts – Banque de France paper
Researchers say method is particularly useful when official data is unavailable
‘Does the Fed know more about the economy?’ asks San Francisco Fed
Researcher compares Fed and private sector growth forecasts
RBNZ paper seeks high-speed labour market indicator
“Midas” approach can help build picture of current state of labour markets, say economists
Major economies outside eurozone to ‘modestly’ decelerate – ECB
Slow growth rates since the “great recession” may point to fall in potential growth, say researchers
Book notes: Finance and philosophy, by Alex J Pollock
A readable and useful book that provides much food for thought, and should be read widely by economists and policy-makers
Ireland to cease euro banknote production
Central bank will look for third-party provider to continue to meet Eurosystem obligations
BoE economists build news-based growth indicator
Newspaper articles can be boiled down to a useful early indicator of economic activity, they say
Micro variables are best warning signs for smaller Italian banks – BoI
Bank of Italy presents early-warning system for crises in less significant lenders
Lack of accurate data poses challenges for cash forecasting
Anonymity of cash makes it hard to track as a payment instrument, panel agrees
Interview: Jussi Kangas on the future of cash
Bank of Finland adviser says it’s challenging to keep the cash cycle efficient as usage falls
BoJ minutes show disagreement over outlook
Not all members agree on how low 10-year yields should be
Riksbank’s Jansson warned of inflation disappointment at hike meeting
Deputy governor voted against the policy rate hike in December
Icelandic central bank questions reform proposals
Publishing rate paths may not work as intended, external MPC members warn
RBA authors try to estimate banknotes’ whereabouts
Information is sparse on the period between a banknote’s issuance and its destruction
Machine learning model outperforms professional forecasters
The model may uncover new relationships in data that were previously overlooked, researcher says
Podcast: The post-crisis world
Andrew Metrick says central banks have changed dramatically since 2008, but more work may be needed to develop new models
ECB unveils richer eurozone forecasting model
“NAWM II” models financial sector’s role in originating and propagating economic shocks
Bank of Mexico opens second banknote printing plant
Existing facility has reached capacity and cannot keep up with banknote demand, says governor
BoE paper proposes fix for flawed rate expectation estimates
Model augmented with overnight indexed swap rates performs better, author says