Expectations
US consumers’ expectations of finding work hit new low – study
Mean perceived probability of a newly unemployed person finding a job fell to 44.9%
No ‘race to the bottom’ if Fed is forced to cut – Schnabel
ECB board member says politicised US central bank would be “very disruptive”
NBER paper says geopolitical risk impacts consumer expectations
ECB survey questions help establish causal link between Russia-Ukraine war and spending plans
Philippines eases policy 25bp to 5% ‘Goldilocks zone’
BSP governor says one more cut likely this year as bank cites risks posed by US trade policy
Teach people monetary policy to anchor expectations – ECB paper
Experiment run at ECB visitor centre finds strong impact from education
On the eve of the Fed’s framework review
Experts speak about the Fed’s monetary strategy review, including the role of flexible average IT and the need to better communicate policy trade-offs
Britain’s ‘knife-edged’ economy is dividing BoE rate-setters
Chief economist and deputy governor for monetary policy both outvoted on MPC for first time since 2007
Towards a new monetary policy framework for the AI age
AI may render the traditional monetary policy toolkit less effective and the familiar rules of engagement obsolete, argues Biagio Bossone
Bessent expects BoJ to raise policy rate
US Treasury secretary also says inflation in Japan is dragging up yields on long-term US bonds
Climate risks still on the fringe of monetary policy in Asia
Notwithstanding efforts by the PBoC and BoJ, there is still a need to observe persistent and measurable impacts on inflation and output before climate change truly influences interest rate policy, argues Sayuri Shirai
Bailey, the IMF and the fundamental asymmetry problem
The IMF must address sovereign asymmetry and transform surveillance into a tool for mutual accountability, argues Biagio Bossone
News coverage affects inflation expectations – NBER paper
Authors say bad news has bigger impact on perceptions of inflation
Book notes: Inflation, by Mark Blyth and Nicolò Fraccaroli
An accessible explainer about the narratives surrounding inflation – and who it benefits
Book notes: Making money work, by Matt Sekerke and Steve H Hanke
This book provides a critique of the post-crisis monetary and financial system, proposing changes that deserve to be broadly read
The battle for the future of central banks
Inflation-targeting institutions must not simply defend against overt interference, they must also resist a sly erosion of their authority, writes Biagio Bossone
Tobias Adrian on the integrated policy framework amid tariff shocks
The IMF’s financial counsellor speaks about policy reaction functions to supply and demand shocks, scenario-based analyses, Treasury market dynamics and emerging market resilience
Finland’s Välimäki on the ECB’s monetary policy framework review
Bank of Finland board member Tuomas Välimäki discusses the benefits of a ‘hybrid’ balance sheet model to provide dependable structural liquidity without distorting markets
Ex-OCC chief Michael Hsu on the impact of an America-first agenda
The former acting comptroller of the currency speaks with Christopher Jeffery about the future of the US Treasury market, Fed independence, financial de-regulation, the Genius Act and international co-operation
Central banks must rethink how they speak
Communication is critical for effective policy and social media is not merely a channel of communication, it is a space for dialogue, a feedback loop and a reputational battleground, writes Biagio Bossone
Paraguay’s Carvallo Spalding on resilience and cutting its inflation target
The Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP) governor speaks about lowering the inflation target to 3.5%, opening up to foreign investors and promoting inclusion through digital payments
A fractured monetary system
US policy is encouraging a transition away from a dollar-led, rules-based order
Book notes: The political economy of central banking, by Alessandro Roselli
Roselli’s book offers a comprehensive history of the relationship between governments and central banks
Maurice Obstfeld on the trade war’s damage to the monetary system
The former IMF chief economist speaks about Trump’s chaotic economic policies, the erosion of Fed independence and dollar stability, difficult policy trade-offs for central banks, and the threat to the Bretton Woods institutions
Rate expectations influence BoJ’s yield control – paper
Bond purchasing programme less effective when market unsure of future monetary policy path