Expectations
The risks facing the Chinese economy
China isn’t at risk of a financial meltdown, but it does face a slow puncture, writes Michael Taylor
Memory shapes inflation expectations, study finds
People who remember high inflation also trust the central bank less, authors say
Finance ministry rep: a guest, a partner or an intruder?
Many central banks let government officials participate in policy meetings. Is that wise?
Monetary policy helped curb inflation expectations – research
Higher rates could achieve a “soft landing” if the expectations channel is strong enough, authors say
Bank of Canada maps path to ‘fourth-generation’ models
Officials plan to create new workhorse model backed by variants focusing on key topics
The ECCB’s Timothy Antoine on currency union, cooperation and DCash 2.0
The ECCB governor speaks with Christopher Jeffery about maintaining a currency zone, addressing climate and cyber risks, the decline in correspondence banking and lessons learned from issuing a retail CBDC
‘Conceptual complexity’ has risen in BoE publications, research finds
Conceptual complexity plays central role in expectations, understanding and trust, authors find
Claudio Borio on financial cycles, operating frameworks and non-bank reform
The BIS veteran highlights a ‘unique constellation’ of challenges as central banks travel the ‘last mile’ in bringing down inflation – and says there are many more miles to go on non-bank reform
Costa Rica and Paraguay whittle away at rates
Both countries make 25bp cuts as inflation falls
Philippine central bank delivers off-cycle rate hike
Governor Remolona said high inflation expectations were ‘very worrisome’
Rate hikes: too much, too late – and now too dangerous
Why monetary tightening risks a global credit crunch
Policy ‘pivot’ can deliver soft landing, says NBER paper
Authors aim for more realistic model of expectations through “level-k thinking”
Financial regulators: one, two, maybe a few?
As Jamaica moves to introduce the ‘twin peaks’ approach to financial oversight, Ben Margulies assesses some of the pros and cons
PBoC cuts key rates as economy stutters
China stops publishing youth jobless rate after record-high figure in June
BoE paper analyses banks’ forecasting accuracy
Banks with better governance, including more senior women, make better predictions, authors find
Brazil makes first rate cut in cycle
Board divides 5–4 over size of reduction, with majority backing larger 50bp option
Supervisory soft skills: working in a consensus-driven environment
New studies highlight the importance of supervisors being able to say ‘no’ – and persuade banks to act accordingly, writes Manoj Singh
Inflation expectations unreliable guide to policy – BoE’s Tenreyro
Policy-makers would be “unwise” to use expectations as an intermediate target, MPC member says
Advanced economies most likely to survey trust and understanding
Data shows differences in how central banks judge the effectiveness of monetary policy
A letter to Andrew Bailey
As the Bank of England struggles to bring inflation down, Jagjit Chadha warns the governor not to let markets take control
BoJ’s easing stance fuels yen undervaluation dilemma
Japanese policy-makers need to consider feedback loop that an undervalued yen has on cost-push inflation; reflect on YCC exit options in ‘broad perspective review’, writes Sayuri Shirai
Fed holds policy rate steady
Powell says conditions for lower inflation are coming into place, and July will be a “live meeting”
Rule-setters need to heed their own advice
The US risks a reputation for failing to meet standards to which it holds others
RBNZ raises rates to peak level
Central bank predicts rates will come down slightly faster than in February forecast