Expectations
A new climate of change
Central banks are warming up to address climate risks just as US interest cools
The BoJ’s possible path to positive rates
Are market expectations about a spring shift from negative Japanese rates credible, asks Sayuri Shirai
Training central bank communicators
The skills needed for communicating in a social media and artificial intelligence world
Governance and diversity at the Federal Reserve
Could changes in governance practices have contributed to poor performance in 2021–22? asks Jeffrey Lacker
The risks facing the Chinese economy
China isn’t at risk of a financial meltdown, but it does face a slow puncture, writes Michael Taylor
Memory shapes inflation expectations, study finds
People who remember high inflation also trust the central bank less, authors say
Finance ministry rep: a guest, a partner or an intruder?
Many central banks let government officials participate in policy meetings. Is that wise?
Monetary policy helped curb inflation expectations – research
Higher rates could achieve a “soft landing” if the expectations channel is strong enough, authors say
Bank of Canada maps path to ‘fourth-generation’ models
Officials plan to create new workhorse model backed by variants focusing on key topics
The ECCB’s Timothy Antoine on currency union, cooperation and DCash 2.0
The ECCB governor speaks with Christopher Jeffery about maintaining a currency zone, addressing climate and cyber risks, the decline in correspondence banking and lessons learned from issuing a retail CBDC
‘Conceptual complexity’ has risen in BoE publications, research finds
Conceptual complexity plays central role in expectations, understanding and trust, authors find
Claudio Borio on financial cycles, operating frameworks and non-bank reform
The BIS veteran highlights a ‘unique constellation’ of challenges as central banks travel the ‘last mile’ in bringing down inflation – and says there are many more miles to go on non-bank reform
Costa Rica and Paraguay whittle away at rates
Both countries make 25bp cuts as inflation falls
Philippine central bank delivers off-cycle rate hike
Governor Remolona said high inflation expectations were ‘very worrisome’
Rate hikes: too much, too late – and now too dangerous
Why monetary tightening risks a global credit crunch
Policy ‘pivot’ can deliver soft landing, says NBER paper
Authors aim for more realistic model of expectations through “level-k thinking”
Financial regulators: one, two, maybe a few?
As Jamaica moves to introduce the ‘twin peaks’ approach to financial oversight, Ben Margulies assesses some of the pros and cons
PBoC cuts key rates as economy stutters
China stops publishing youth jobless rate after record-high figure in June
BoE paper analyses banks’ forecasting accuracy
Banks with better governance, including more senior women, make better predictions, authors find
Brazil makes first rate cut in cycle
Board divides 5–4 over size of reduction, with majority backing larger 50bp option
Supervisory soft skills: working in a consensus-driven environment
New studies highlight the importance of supervisors being able to say ‘no’ – and persuade banks to act accordingly, writes Manoj Singh