Expectations
Markets starting to reflect ‘tenacious’ inflation, says BIS
Swings in markets highlight investors’ struggle to understand outlook, quarterly review says
US needs tighter policy, former senior Fed adviser says
Higher rates will cause little damage to supply chains, David Wilcox argues
Economy’s ‘first responders’ now in the line of fire
Forceful but late interventions to combat inflation raise the risk of central bank overreactions
US CPI inflation falls modestly
New York Fed reports “steep declines” in inflation expectations, but core CPI ticks up
Morocco’s Jouahri on inflation, forex reform, digitalisation and sustainability
The Central Bank of Morocco governor speaks with Christopher Jeffery about Covid-19 policies, Fed tightening, BIS membership, regional co-operation and financial inclusion
Joseph Stiglitz on the challenge of fixing macroeconomics
The Nobel Prize-winning economist discusses the flaws in mainstream models and how to repair them, whether central banks went wrong in 2021, and what to do – or not to do – about inflation
BoE policy-makers debate more aggressive tightening
New government and “extreme volatility” in energy markets complicate outlook
BoE’s Mann presents ‘nuanced’ version of Phillips curve
Drift in medium-term inflation expectations requires more forceful action, policy-maker says
Banknotes: July to September 2022
A round-up of news and salient issues that have affected central bankers in the past three months
ECB’s Lane and Schnabel strike different notes on eurozone inflation
Schnabel says “right tail” shift could herald de-anchoring, but Lane says other outcomes are possible
Bank of Mexico’s battle to restore price stability
Despite presidential attacks, former officials say a solid institutional framework preserves central bank autonomy – likely a key asset in the battle against inflation
Gontareva on Ukraine’s funding, NBU policy and reconstruction
Former NBU governor Valeria Gontareva speaks about donor funding shortfalls, NBU policy and financial stability challenges, Nabuillina and the seizing of Russian assets, and post-conflict rebuilding and modernisation
Philippine central bank raises policy rates by 50bp
The BSP revises upwards average inflation for 2022 to 5.4% from 5%
Central banks should ‘overestimate’ inflation persistence, says economist
Academic argues central banks should act as if exogenous shocks are likely to be persistent
Rates round-up: Argentina adds 950bp to main rate
Central banks in Argentina, Peru, Rwanda, Serbia and Uganda tighten policy
Firms use supply chains to predict inflation – IMF paper
Authors find expectation formation diverges from rational expectations hypothesis
Ukraine’s wartime economy faces possible crisis
Foreign donors must increase financing of Ukrainian government, NBU ex-governor and current government adviser argue
How central bank mistakes after 2019 led to inflation
Central banks must acknowledge their own mistakes and outline concrete steps to restore the public’s confidence in their ability to ensure price stability, write Graeme Wheeler and Bryce Wilkinson*
Czech central bank halts tightening
Many had expected new governor and board to take dovish turn
ECB paper examines unanchored inflation expectations
Public reacts more strongly to larger and downward inflation surprises, researcher finds
Rates round-up: Latin American central banks battle persistent inflation
Colombian, Dominican and Nicaraguan central banks hike rates as inflation stays high
Uzbekistan lowers key rate by 100bp
Central Asian country follows Russia in reversing rate increases from start of invasion of Ukraine
US experts believe inflation will fall, eventually
CPI inflation surges above consensus forecasts, but economists expect a turning point soon
Rising inflation still stalks major Latin American economies
Tighter monetary policy in Brazil, Chile and Mexico is failing to bring inflation down