Expectations
ECB and BoJ officials reject explicit forward guidance
Central bankers promote ‘meeting-by-meeting’ approach to rates setting
Venetian lessons for today’s central bankers
Loose money and lost credibility in 17th century city state provide a cautionary tale about the importance of international investor confidence, argues Biagio Bossone
US inflation expectations at risk of de-anchoring – Boston Fed study
Authors say post-Covid spike has altered perceptions of future price stability
The voice of the central bank in times of uncertainty
The NBU’s monetary policy head Volodymyr Lepushynskyi explains the importance of transparent communications in maintaining trust and managing expectations
Rising temperatures raise inflation expectations – ECB paper
Global warming also leads to greater pessimism about growth, research finds
Central banks must focus on comms – Bank of Finland panel
Institutions need to concentrate on anchoring inflation expectations, governors say
Australia leaves policy rate unchanged, as expected
Governor says policy a little restrictive, while RBA notes slightly higher-than-forecast inflation data
Central Europe’s central banks hold rates
Switzerland, Czech Republic and Hungary keep policy steady
Eurozone consumers shifted habits after tariffs – ECB survey
More financially literate citizens stopped buying US goods, consumer expectations survey shows
Sarb pauses easing cycle as inflation ticks up
Bank cautiously optimistic about growth, but wary of expectations becoming unanchored
BI makes third surprise cut as lawmakers mull its mandate
Bank says 25bp easing aimed at promoting growth, pledges further monetary-fiscal policy alignment
US consumers’ expectations of finding work hit new low – study
Mean perceived probability of a newly unemployed person finding a job fell to 44.9%
No ‘race to the bottom’ if Fed is forced to cut – Schnabel
ECB board member says politicised US central bank would be “very disruptive”
NBER paper says geopolitical risk impacts consumer expectations
ECB survey questions help establish causal link between Russia-Ukraine war and spending plans
Philippines eases policy 25bp to 5% ‘Goldilocks zone’
BSP governor says one more cut likely this year as bank cites risks posed by US trade policy
Teach people monetary policy to anchor expectations – ECB paper
Experiment run at ECB visitor centre finds strong impact from education
On the eve of the Fed’s framework review
Experts speak about the Fed’s monetary strategy review, including the role of flexible average IT and the need to better communicate policy trade-offs
Britain’s ‘knife-edged’ economy is dividing BoE rate-setters
Chief economist and deputy governor for monetary policy both outvoted on MPC for first time since 2007
Towards a new monetary policy framework for the AI age
AI may render the traditional monetary policy toolkit less effective and the familiar rules of engagement obsolete, argues Biagio Bossone
Bessent expects BoJ to raise policy rate
US Treasury secretary also says inflation in Japan is dragging up yields on long-term US bonds
Climate risks still on the fringe of monetary policy in Asia
Notwithstanding efforts by the PBoC and BoJ, there is still a need to observe persistent and measurable impacts on inflation and output before climate change truly influences interest rate policy, argues Sayuri Shirai
Bailey, the IMF and the fundamental asymmetry problem
The IMF must address sovereign asymmetry and transform surveillance into a tool for mutual accountability, argues Biagio Bossone
News coverage affects inflation expectations – NBER paper
Authors say bad news has bigger impact on perceptions of inflation
Book notes: Inflation, by Mark Blyth and Nicolò Fraccaroli
An accessible explainer about the narratives surrounding inflation – and who it benefits