Expectations
Odean White on cyber, natural disasters and geopolitical risks
Bank of Jamaica’s chief risk officer discusses weather event contingency planning, the impact of ‘shocks’ on policy, being proactive on quantum, and countering phishing and AI-enabled attacks
RBNZ says New Zealand faces greater risk of persistent inflation
Central bank’s chief economist believes monetary policy may need to respond ‘more firmly’
Perception is reality when it comes to comms – BoE paper
Study finds central bank messaging rarely reaches public, though it shapes media narratives
Lagarde ‘regrets’ forward guidance and Warsh plans ‘family fight’
Fed, ECB, BoC and BoE heads discuss inflation, uncertainty, AI, stagflation and independence in Sintra
Uruguay holds rates at 5.75% for third time in a row
BCU says there is no evidence of significant second-round effects from energy supply shock
Jamaica holds rates at 5.5%
Central bank expects headline and core inflation to breach upper range of its 4–6% target
Mervyn King on his career and big ‘mistakes’
The former BoE governor speaks with Christopher Jeffery about the value of transparency, lessons from the GFC, the need to track broad money and tie short-term funding to haircut collateral, and danger presented by non-banks
Geopolitics is driving monetary policy – panel
ECB’s Vujčić points to impact of US equities, while BoE’s Taylor says uncertainty justifies rates hold
Hungary cuts by 25bp, signals more easing to come
Central bank says households’ inflation expectations have declined ‘significantly’ in recent months
ECB’s June hike ‘defensible’ but bank should be cautious – study
Uniform rate hikes are ‘bad, short-term oriented policy’, researcher says
China holds LPRs for 13th consecutive month
Decision comes after governor says ‘slower, more efficient credit growth’ may be new normal
Bank of Russia cuts by less than expected
Governor cites pro-inflationary risks for decision to ease by 25bp rather than the anticipated 50bp
Brazil cuts rates to 14.25% despite worsening inflation
Copom forecasts 5.2% price growth for 2026 and 3.7% by end of 2027
Switzerland and Norway hold, Czech Republic and Moldova hike
SNB says inflation uptick is temporary, while CNB and Norges Bank highlight wage pressures
Philippines and Indonesia tighten by 25bp
BSP says inflation ‘strong’ as BI’s focus remains on rupiah
Fed holds rates in first meeting under Kevin Warsh
FOMC drops easing bias and forward guidance, as chair announces taskforces to improve Fed operations
Jim Bullard on Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC and Fed independence
The Federal Reserve veteran speaks with Christopher Jeffery about Iran and the US economy, the ‘good' AI bubble, cutting the Fed’s balance sheet and staff, and the need to clarify swap rules and recapitalise the regional Feds
RBA holds policy and says inflation is ‘too high’
Australian governor hawkish amid concerns of embedded inflation expectations
Zoltán Kurali on Hungary’s reserves strategy and euro adoption
Deputy governor speaks about portfolio positioning amidst geopolitical volatility, AI, CBDC and the future of the forint
Peru holds rates amid too-close-to-call election
BCRP says effects of supply shocks that drove inflation will dissipate
Austria and Finland warn of Iran war’s impact following ECB hike
Higher energy prices are slowing growth and raising inflation, central banks say
ECB hikes by 25bp as eurozone inflation takes off
Staff projections foresee higher price growth followed by downward revision over coming two years
Ueda’s hospitalisation may create challenges for BoJ comms
Observers say bank is still likely to hike, but signs of future policy path will be harder to read
Monetary policy is about robustness, not precision – panel
Uncertainty is no longer an exception but the norm, panellists tell Central Banking London Meetings