Expectations
Ukraine: the challenges for central banks
Rules on the weaponisation of money would help to protect a ‘public good’ amid geopolitical splits in a testing environment for central banks, write Gavin Bingham, Paul Fisher and Andrew Large
Rates round-up: RBA tightens policy 25bp
Plus rate increases in India, Israel, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica
Colombia orders ninth consecutive rate increase
Inflation rises above central bank projections as finance minister expresses frustration
Four African central banks take policy decisions
Morocco and BEAC increase rates and Tanzania reduces liquidity while Angola cuts policy rate
Controversial nominee joins Paraguayan board
Central bank continues tightening process with fourteenth straight hike as inflation slows
Inflation: what went wrong, and why?
Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan detail three theories on the causes of high inflation, as well as their implications for policy responses
Book notes: 21st century monetary policy, by Ben S Bernanke
Bernanke’s great book offers important insights for today’s policy-makers, writes Stephen Poloz
Fed raises interest rate 75bp for third time
Powell reiterates pledge to “keep at it” until inflation is back to 2%
Markets starting to reflect ‘tenacious’ inflation, says BIS
Swings in markets highlight investors’ struggle to understand outlook, quarterly review says
US needs tighter policy, former senior Fed adviser says
Higher rates will cause little damage to supply chains, David Wilcox argues
Economy’s ‘first responders’ now in the line of fire
Forceful but late interventions to combat inflation raise the risk of central bank overreactions
US CPI inflation falls modestly
New York Fed reports “steep declines” in inflation expectations, but core CPI ticks up
Morocco’s Jouahri on inflation, forex reform, digitalisation and sustainability
The Central Bank of Morocco governor speaks with Christopher Jeffery about Covid-19 policies, Fed tightening, BIS membership, regional co-operation and financial inclusion
Joseph Stiglitz on the challenge of fixing macroeconomics
The Nobel Prize-winning economist discusses the flaws in mainstream models and how to repair them, whether central banks went wrong in 2021, and what to do – or not to do – about inflation
BoE policy-makers debate more aggressive tightening
New government and “extreme volatility” in energy markets complicate outlook
BoE’s Mann presents ‘nuanced’ version of Phillips curve
Drift in medium-term inflation expectations requires more forceful action, policy-maker says
Banknotes: July to September 2022
A round-up of news and salient issues that have affected central bankers in the past three months
ECB’s Lane and Schnabel strike different notes on eurozone inflation
Schnabel says “right tail” shift could herald de-anchoring, but Lane says other outcomes are possible
Bank of Mexico’s battle to restore price stability
Despite presidential attacks, former officials say a solid institutional framework preserves central bank autonomy – likely a key asset in the battle against inflation
Gontareva on Ukraine’s funding, NBU policy and reconstruction
Former NBU governor Valeria Gontareva speaks about donor funding shortfalls, NBU policy and financial stability challenges, Nabuillina and the seizing of Russian assets, and post-conflict rebuilding and modernisation
Philippine central bank raises policy rates by 50bp
The BSP revises upwards average inflation for 2022 to 5.4% from 5%
Central banks should ‘overestimate’ inflation persistence, says economist
Academic argues central banks should act as if exogenous shocks are likely to be persistent
Rates round-up: Argentina adds 950bp to main rate
Central banks in Argentina, Peru, Rwanda, Serbia and Uganda tighten policy
Firms use supply chains to predict inflation – IMF paper
Authors find expectation formation diverges from rational expectations hypothesis