Expectations
The Fed can afford to loosen policy
As (nearly) the world’s most hawkish central bank, the Federal Reserve is right to start monetary loosening, writes Steve Kamin
Campos Neto on inflation targeting, independence and the future of financial intermediation
The Brazilian governor speaks with Christopher Jeffery about tackling inflation, the need for financial autonomy, and redefining the financial landscape with open finance, programmable Pix, deposit tokenisation and sound cross-border payments governance
Neural networks are ‘powerful tool’ for non-linear analysis – paper
Machine learning technique highlights downsides to inflation target ranges
Full-scale war with Hezbollah is a tail-end event – Bank of Israel deputy
Andrew Abir says central bank has advised government to ensure adequate fiscal space as it expects war to last longer and revises its growth and inflation forecasts
Turkish inflation falls for first time in eight months
Cooling prices could herald disinflation trend despite negative real rates
Malaysia’s Rasheed expects a “bumpy road” for EM currencies
Governor Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour says BNM will intervene if needed ahead of future Fed cut; rules out capital controls but has encouraged institutions to repatriate earnings
BNM’s Rasheed on inflation, growth and currency performance in emerging markets
Bank Negara Malaysia’s governor speaks about balancing inflation and growth, supporting the ringgit, multilateral currency settlement and greening Islamic finance
‘Selective memory’ helps explain expectation de-anchoring – paper
Authors build model around three “regularities of human recall”
BoJ hawkishness due to weak yen belies wage inflation concerns
The contrast in Japan-US economic, price and wage performance and their implications for monetary policies
Lkhagvasuren Byadran on geopolitics, gold and 100 years of central banking on the steppe
Bank of Mongolia governor Lkhagvasuren Byadran speaks about monetary and financial reform, embracing AI and fintech, and Mongolia’s new SWF
Are low-level inflation targets still fit for purpose?
Geostrategic shifts make the case for a narrow price target less compelling
Book notes: Fintech: finance, technology and regulation, by Ross Buckley, Douglas Arner and Dirk Zetzsche
An excellent overview of fintech 3.0 and 4.0 that also includes suggestions for smart regulation
Communications Benchmarks 2024 – model banks analysis
Additional breakdowns of the data highlight differences in emerging market and advanced economies
Cecilia Skingsley on monetary policy tech and a unified ledger
Head of the BIS Innovation Hub speaks about tokenisation, CBDCs and the ‘black box problem’ in AI
Profit inflation and monetary policy: weighing the evidence
Biagio Bossone says profit inflation needs monetary ‘fuel’ to rise – but fiscal policy is the best fix, should governments have the ‘guts’
BoE hints at possible cuts before Fed
Rate cuts may exceed market expectations, Andrew Bailey says
Facebook, LinkedIn, X are top social channels
Central banks see “interactions” as key metric for tracking social media
BIS’s Zhang Tao on why Asian central banks favour a broader policy mix
The BIS’s Asia chief speaks with Christopher Jeffery and Jimmy Choi about supporting liquidity, financial stability and innovation in the Asia-Pacific region
UK inflationary pressure easing, BoE deputy says
Ramsden breaks inflation process into four steps, finding persistent elements are weakening
A new climate of change
Central banks are warming up to address climate risks just as US interest cools
BoE holds policy rate as MPC flags persistent inflation
Headline price rises forecast to drop below 2% within months, but wage growth remains high