Research
Natural interest rate driven by productivity growth – research
Population increase also plays important role in determining metric, RBNZ paper finds
Stress tests stronger in EU than in US – BdF research
Lenders remain well capitalised in both regions but European banks are more resilient, study finds
Post-Covid inflation in US mainly driven by demand – study
Author says findings help account for Fed’s difficulty in achieving 2% target
Eurozone fiscal policies grew real GDP, dampened inflation – ECB
However, Covid-era policies led to higher deficits and debt in years following pandemic, research finds
‘Liberation day’ likely to cause US recession – NBER study
Paper sets out conditions for tariff-driven downturn and says US is likely to meet them
Bank lending in Ukraine continues to grow, despite conflict
NBU survey reports demand from businesses and households is up, though loan quality may be slipping
Inflation uncertainty reaching historic high in US – research
Richmond Fed economist says inflation expectations and uncertainty are rising dramatically
Researchers build ‘most comprehensive’ global macro database
Long-term data reveals financial crises can harm growth for half a century
Birth determines people’s retirement savings in US – study
US-born seniors have almost three times as much saved as non-citizens, Minneapolis Fed research finds
Disparities in US inflation have policy implications – study
State-level differences in price rises have increased since 2010s, says San Francisco Fed study
SMEs likely to pass on tariff costs to consumers – study
Boston Fed research finds causal link between levies and price rises for consumers
Global liquidity flows less sensitive to risk – NBER paper
Capital flows are more stable despite shift into bonds since global financial crisis
Average inflation targeting raised post-Covid prices in US – study
Dallas Fed research argues Fait framework contributed to surging prices
Policy should respond to long-run expectations – Fed study
Such a framework would enhance price stability, paper argues
Central bank independence helps price stability – ECB paper
Research shows that greater autonomy means more policy discipline and enhanced credibility
CFOs gloomy about impact of tariffs on US – Atlanta Fed study
Survey shows C-suite’s early worries about trade barriers
AI forecasting outperforms traditional methods – study
New approach still only complements existing models but results are promising, say authors
LatAm policy transmission matches historical norm – paper
Pass-through stronger in consumer and corporate lending, Bank of Spain study finds
US monetary policy affects income inequality – Fed research
Surprise rate hikes affect lowest paid, authors find
Legal framework key to keeping money’s singleness – study
Interoperable blockchain payment systems could present challenges, say NY Fed researchers
Vector-based language model can improve forecasts – BIS paper
“Word embeddings” can be used to make better inflation predictions, authors find
Concentrated ownership in US means fewer jobs, lower pay – study
Chicago Fed research says resulting changes have not led to any commensurate rise in productivity
Business models at heart of 2023 banking turmoil – research
Unrealised losses and uninsured deposits were not main drivers of crisis, Chicago Fed paper argues
ECB monetary policy spills over to US – Chicago Fed study
Resulting appreciation of dollar causes US leveraged loan investors to demand more compensation