Research
Overvalued US stocks weaken FCIs’ signal effects – ECB research
Policy-makers should not be blinded by inflated equity prices, authors say
Rate changes have biggest impact on goods and housing – RBNZ study
Research analyses impact of rate hikes following pandemic-related inflation
US bank profitability measure continues rising – study
Net interest margin climbed throughout 2024 and Q1 2025, St Louis Fed research finds
Capping interchange fees would benefit cash and card users – Fed study
Authors say limit on payment card charges would be advantageous for both customers and merchants
Inflationary shocks hurt US labour market and output – Fed study
As real wages decline, workers search for new, less economically productive jobs, research finds
Moderate US bank stress could lead to global contagion – report
IMF study cites SVB’s collapse, which reverberated across world by pushing up US sovereign credit risk
Credit lines help firms absorb tariff shocks – BIS bulletin
Banks can stabilise economy during crises by offering on-demand liquidity, researchers say
Chance of US recession lower, but still high – NY Fed study
Authors say model puts chances at 75%, compared with 83% at beginning of 2024
Jobs, not prices, are main reason for dissent on FOMC – study
Votes show unemployment in presidents’ districts is of greater concern to them than inflation
Trump’s trade policy a ‘wildcard’, says Bostic
Atlanta Fed president says tariffs picture is “unsettled” and calls for patience on monetary policy
BoK paper links real interest rate to demographic shift
Higher life expectancy and lower birth rate exert downward pressure on rates, researchers find
SNB paper shows 5–6% boost in inflation forecasting
Hedged random forest method “consistently outperforms” unhedged approach
High profits to cushion against bank losses – Danish central bank
Lenders in good position to deal with tariff turmoil, says National Bank of Denmark
Trade trends favoured China over US even before tariffs – study
St Louis Fed research shows long-term re-anchoring of countries’ trade links between 2002 and 2022
Stablecoins impact US Treasury yields – BIS paper
Sector’s continued growth could affect monetary policy transmission, authors say
Supply chains more normal than they seem – Richmond Fed study
Research says index compiled by New York Fed points to business as usual
US faces mounting costs if trade war escalates – study
Fed economists monitor effect on asset and consumer goods prices under blanket 25% tariff
US citizens increasingly reluctant to relocate – study
Richmond Fed research cites multiple causes, including narrowing gender gap and seniors’ wish to stay put
IMF officials call for central clearing of sovereign bonds
“More work needed” to enhance structural resilience in core markets, researchers say
Growth in US CRE loans hits 11-year low – research
St Louis Fed study says developers responding to higher costs and lower demand
Muted consumer sentiment may not presage low US growth – study
Kansas City Fed research says people’s pessimism does not automatically mean they will spend less
GSEs not lending as much as they appear to be – NY Fed paper
Much of enterprises’ loans to “real economy” are in fact financed by other types of institution
‘Chat Bankman-Fried’ has poor grasp of governance – study
Bank of Italy paper finds many LLMs would choose to behave in similar way to former crypto exchange owner
Rate expectations influence BoJ’s yield control – paper
Bond purchasing programme less effective when market unsure of future monetary policy path