Research
BoK paper links real interest rate to demographic shift
Higher life expectancy and lower birth rate exert downward pressure on rates, researchers find
SNB paper shows 5–6% boost in inflation forecasting
Hedged random forest method “consistently outperforms” unhedged approach
High profits to cushion against bank losses – Danish central bank
Lenders in good position to deal with tariff turmoil, says National Bank of Denmark
Trade trends favoured China over US even before tariffs – study
St Louis Fed research shows long-term re-anchoring of countries’ trade links between 2002 and 2022
Stablecoins impact US Treasury yields – BIS paper
Sector’s continued growth could affect monetary policy transmission, authors say
Supply chains more normal than they seem – Richmond Fed study
Research says index compiled by New York Fed points to business as usual
US faces mounting costs if trade war escalates – study
Fed economists monitor effect on asset and consumer goods prices under blanket 25% tariff
US citizens increasingly reluctant to relocate – study
Richmond Fed research cites multiple causes, including narrowing gender gap and seniors’ wish to stay put
IMF officials call for central clearing of sovereign bonds
“More work needed” to enhance structural resilience in core markets, researchers say
Growth in US CRE loans hits 11-year low – research
St Louis Fed study says developers responding to higher costs and lower demand
Muted consumer sentiment may not presage low US growth – study
Kansas City Fed research says people’s pessimism does not automatically mean they will spend less
GSEs not lending as much as they appear to be – NY Fed paper
Much of enterprises’ loans to “real economy” are in fact financed by other types of institution
‘Chat Bankman-Fried’ has poor grasp of governance – study
Bank of Italy paper finds many LLMs would choose to behave in similar way to former crypto exchange owner
Rate expectations influence BoJ’s yield control – paper
Bond purchasing programme less effective when market unsure of future monetary policy path
Dallas Fed study adds to official scepticism of US tariffs
Research says potential for domestic gains will depend on other countries not responding
ECB intervention stabilised debt market during Covid – research
Study by bank’s economists says firms found it harder to issue commercial paper later on
NY Fed and BIS explore monetary policy in a tokenised world
Project Pine’s smart contracts are designed so central banks can adapt them to their currencies and frameworks
Tariffs already raising US inflation – Fed study
Researchers say trade policies were starting to affect consumer prices in March
Rate hikes have created debt-servicing difficulties – ECB study
Research also points to overall robustness in eurozone’s household lending sector
AI poses financial stability risks, says RBNZ report
Market concentration among potential sources of instability, research finds
Falling oil prices bode ill for Russia – Bank of Finland blog
Higher deficits may cause authorities to engage in monetary financing, says Heli Simola
FOMC vote rotation ‘distorts’ rates – NBER paper
Regional Fed presidents make decisions based on local conditions, research finds
Eurozone exports to US unlikely to rise in trade war – ECB study
US tariffs rerouted Chinese goods to eurozone, but exporters there failed to boost US presence
Almost half of eurozone ready to stop buying US goods – ECB study
Tariffs have triggered significant animosity among consumers, research finds