Research
Ex-BIS research head backs tokenised deposits over stablecoins
Tokenisation is the “truly transformative innovation”, argue Cecchetti and Schoenholtz
Aging population may improve fiscal sustainability – paper
More old people means more money to invest in assets like government bonds, researchers point out
US consumer spending resilience hides inequalities – research
Low-income consumers’ credit card debt has risen substantially since 2019
Eurozone unemployment stats may understate slack – research
Authors say they have created an indicator with important monetary policy implications
Climate change harming global economy – BoK study
Study finds high income countries more vulnerable to climate change, in contrast to other research
Financial conditions help explain policy stance in Africa – IMF paper
Study says r* is not a sufficient guide to monetary policy when transmission mechanism is impaired
Uncertainty necessitates strong capital buffers – ECB
Central bank calls for increased attention to macro-pru and monetary policy complementarity
National debt will push up US interest rates – Dallas Fed research
Long-term rates could rise more than 1.5 percentage points over next 30 years, say authors
Low long-term real rates can increase inequality in US – study
Authors say low rates cause wealthy to invest more in their children’s education
ECB study finds banks window-dressing before stress tests
Lower-ranked lenders shifted risky assets ahead of 2021 and 2023 exercises
Politics influences US citizens’ inflation expectations – study
Party affiliations help explain divergence in different surveys’ results, say Cleveland Fed economists
Stablecoin growth may decrease loan supply in US – Fed study
Bank lending could be reduced by $325 billion over next three years, author claims
Weak productivity reduced output in Australia by up to 3% – study
RBA paper says decline has “profound implications” for citizens’ welfare
Investor sentiment now back at pre-tariff level – BIS study
However, authors warn that accommodative conditions could reverse at any time and trigger disruption
Investment funds procyclical to bond markets – ECB blog
Vehicles sell sovereign debt in times of stress while other investors step in to buy it
Foreign open-end funds threaten financial stability – BoJ study
Researchers say external crises could lead to large outflows from vehicles investing in Japan
Central banks’ climate comms influence markets – CEPR column
Researchers draw conclusions after examining more than 35,000 speeches on environmental issues
Tariffs only partly explain April’s volatility – BIS paper
Movements in dollar and Treasury term spread driven by other factors, authors say
Fed policy may disproportionally affect largest banks – study
More leveraged US lenders experience sharper stock declines following rate hikes, Fed paper finds
RBNZ survey respondents expect bank to cut policy rate
Business leaders and forecasters also expect weaker inflation in New Zealand over medium term
News coverage affects inflation expectations – NBER paper
Authors say bad news has bigger impact on perceptions of inflation
ECB paper finds strong policy can stop expectations de-anchoring
Communicating counterfactual scenarios can help to inform monetary policy decisions
Monetary policy alone will not solve Korea’s problems – paper
Study calls for structural changes to tackle ageing population, high debt and low growth
Fed independence concerns raising risk premia – research
Authors of BBVA study say long-term yields briefly spiked amid rumours that Trump would fire Powell