Research
ECB study finds banks window-dressing before stress tests
Lower-ranked lenders shifted risky assets ahead of 2021 and 2023 exercises
Politics influences US citizens’ inflation expectations – study
Party affiliations help explain divergence in different surveys’ results, say Cleveland Fed economists
Stablecoin growth may decrease loan supply in US – Fed study
Bank lending could be reduced by $325 billion over next three years, author claims
Weak productivity reduced output in Australia by up to 3% – study
RBA paper says decline has “profound implications” for citizens’ welfare
Investor sentiment now back at pre-tariff level – BIS study
However, authors warn that accommodative conditions could reverse at any time and trigger disruption
Investment funds procyclical to bond markets – ECB blog
Vehicles sell sovereign debt in times of stress while other investors step in to buy it
Foreign open-end funds threaten financial stability – BoJ study
Researchers say external crises could lead to large outflows from vehicles investing in Japan
Central banks’ climate comms influence markets – CEPR column
Researchers draw conclusions after examining more than 35,000 speeches on environmental issues
Tariffs only partly explain April’s volatility – BIS paper
Movements in dollar and Treasury term spread driven by other factors, authors say
Fed policy may disproportionally affect largest banks – study
More leveraged US lenders experience sharper stock declines following rate hikes, Fed paper finds
RBNZ survey respondents expect bank to cut policy rate
Business leaders and forecasters also expect weaker inflation in New Zealand over medium term
News coverage affects inflation expectations – NBER paper
Authors say bad news has bigger impact on perceptions of inflation
ECB paper finds strong policy can stop expectations de-anchoring
Communicating counterfactual scenarios can help to inform monetary policy decisions
Monetary policy alone will not solve Korea’s problems – paper
Study calls for structural changes to tackle ageing population, high debt and low growth
Fed independence concerns raising risk premia – research
Authors of BBVA study say long-term yields briefly spiked amid rumours that Trump would fire Powell
Ageing societies limit monetary policy space – BoK study
“Super aged” populations cut growth and inflation, and weaken banking sector, authors say
More independent central banks take on greater risk – ECB paper
Low rates, tighter fiscal policy and good growth accompanied by higher risk-taking on balance sheets
BIS paper debuts new metric to gauge monetary policy stance
Index captures how size of central bank balance sheet affects borrowing conditions
Markets bet on cuts when Trump threatens Powell – research
Economists link attacks on Fed independence with expectations of policy easing
‘Start late, then sprint’ may cost when tackling inflation – CEPR
Research says approach ultimately succeeded post-Covid, but hurt central banks’ credibility
Tailored central bank messaging boosts trust – BoJ study
Citizens are more confident about inflation forecasts when delivered by someone similar to them
Central banks’ CBDC sentiment can prove contagious – BIS study
Authors say Fed and ECB’s positions on digital assets affect how the currencies are perceived elsewhere
China’s policies reduce risk of ‘Japanification’ – study
Bank of Spain research compares country’s economic challenges with its Pacific neighbour’s in 1990s
Oil shocks create ‘persistent’ labour downturns – IMF paper
Gains for oil-exporting countries are “comparatively modest”, say researchers