Research
Emerging economies likely to lag advanced in AI-led growth – study
BIS report highlights divergence in technology’s impact on jobs and countries’ ability to adapt
Net zero transition could boost productivity – BoE paper
Impact of carbon tax depends partly on spillovers from green technology, economists say
Basel Committee warns of rollover risks in SRT markets
Investors’ appetite for synthetic risk transfers could lessen during downturns, organisation says
Central banks develop GenAI tool for inflation nowcasting
Researchers say method has global applicability
Banks’ internal markets impact wider funding conditions – paper
Repos from affiliates play key role in channelling liquidity to financial system, authors find
Study calls for twin-pronged macro-pru approach to shocks
Higher capital and CCyB are both needed to mitigate threats to stability, say Bank of Italy authors
Models need rethink due to effect of global shocks – paper
Central banks can no longer assume shocks are ‘temporary, linear and symmetric’, authors say
Lenders use strict covenants to hedge against rate hikes – study
US banks exposed to policy volatility use breaches to cut lending in tightening cycles, authors say
BIS paper models fiscal influence on monetary policy
Researchers propose alternative mechanism to fiscal theory of the price level
Eurozone banks unexpectedly tightened lending – ECB survey
Respondents suggest tariffs were partly to blame for reduction in available credit for businesses
‘Pricing cascades’ crucial to post-Covid inflation – study
ECB researchers say speed and interdependencies were key components to shock
Life insurers increasingly exposed to systemic risk – BoE paper
Authors say European firms’ ‘non-traditional activities’ may call for new regulation
China could trigger Treasuries selloff to punish US – paper
Beijing might sustain short-term self-harm to undermine US assets’ safe haven reputation, authors say
BIS study finds no long-term decline of global dollar use
Reports of euro’s demise are also greatly exaggerated, researchers say
ECB and ESRB warn of financial stability risk from geopolitics
New model takes prediction data to show US domestic politics affecting eurozone financial markets
Trade liberalisation with China increased US wages – study
Fed researchers find ‘long-suspected’ benefits for labour market
Derivatives hedging can weaken effect of capital rules – BIS paper
Banks increase use of credit default swaps when counter-cyclical buffers rise, study finds
Paper calls for ’systematic monitoring’ of cyber risks
Non-financial firms’ credit risk indicators not accounting for ‘sharp increase’ in incidents, say authors
Geopolitics a key focus for ECB supervisors – blog
European banks have fared well so far against shocks but must stay vigilant, senior officials write
Beige Books show promise at predicting recessions – study
LLM data on Fed reports is more accurate at forecasting downturns than yield spread, authors find
Fed study sounds alarm over algorithmic rises in credit limits
Researchers say US lenders are extending too much credit to subprime borrowers
Europeans have more trust in compatriot ECB officials – study
ECB messages carry more weight when delivered by officials from one’s own country, research finds
Ricardian equivalence does not hold in reality, study finds
Researchers say consumers do not fully plan ahead for expected tax liabilities
Yield curve ‘steepening’ best seen as normalisation – ECB study
Long-term borrowing costs surged but overall structure ‘not in an unusual shape’, say economists