Research
More independent central banks take on greater risk – ECB paper
Low rates, tighter fiscal policy and good growth accompanied by higher risk-taking on balance sheets
BIS paper debuts new metric to gauge monetary policy stance
Index captures how size of central bank balance sheet affects borrowing conditions
Markets bet on cuts when Trump threatens Powell – research
Economists link attacks on Fed independence with expectations of policy easing
‘Start late, then sprint’ may cost when tackling inflation – CEPR
Research says approach ultimately succeeded post-Covid, but hurt central banks’ credibility
Tailored central bank messaging boosts trust – BoJ study
Citizens are more confident about inflation forecasts when delivered by someone similar to them
Central banks’ CBDC sentiment can prove contagious – BIS study
Authors say Fed and ECB’s positions on digital assets affect how the currencies are perceived elsewhere
China’s policies reduce risk of ‘Japanification’ – study
Bank of Spain research compares country’s economic challenges with its Pacific neighbour’s in 1990s
Oil shocks create ‘persistent’ labour downturns – IMF paper
Gains for oil-exporting countries are “comparatively modest”, say researchers
Central bankers’ speeches good for the euro, but not ECB – study
People’s support for single currency rises as their trust in institution falls, say LSE researchers
US firms face up to $71bn of extra costs from tariffs – study
Authors say additional complexities mean findings are likely to be on the conservative end of costs
BoC survey finds ‘buy Canadian’ trend amid tariff threats
More than half of respondents plan to spend less on US goods and avoid holidaying below 49th parallel
BoE publishes SVAR model in response to Bernanke review
Flexible model designed to provide “structural narrative” to understand forecast revisions
Wholesale bank funding boosts policy transmission – paper
NBER study highlights trade-offs between reducing systemic risk and facilitating credit flow
Non-banks pose hidden stability risks – Fed research
Credit lines to NBFIs are off firms’ balance sheets, thereby concealing potential hazards, say authors
Regional trade key for Africa’s growth – BIS bulletin
Closer ties between states will help shield continent from US tariff shocks, researchers say
Tariffs would reduce jobs and real income in US – new study
San Francisco Fed paper says drops in earnings would be unevenly spread
More NBFI liquidity data could aid financial stability – ECB study
Research recommends active margin call monitoring for non-banks
Fed researchers look at age-old problems in US economy
More adults are moving in with parents and retirement levels normalise post-Covid, studies find
New Zealand’s ageing population may drive down rates – study
RBNZ research says “grey wave” may make it harder to stimulate economy with cuts
Floating-rate credit blunts policy transmission – research
Inflation would have reached target sooner if more firms had borrowed at fixed rates, study finds
Yield curve affects banks’ ability to lend – Boston Fed study
Central banks should consider effects when calibrating balance sheet policies, say authors
Falling immigration weighing on US GDP – Dallas Fed study
Growth in 2025 likely to be around one percentage point lower than was forecast in 2024, say authors
US monetary policy has greater impact, BoK modelling shows
Researchers say findings show importance of diversifying export markets and monitoring US conditions
Interest-bearing CBDCs could be better for depositors – study
CEPR study says there is “optimal” rate at which currencies would improve people’s welfare