United States
US stagflation risk is significant and rising, experts say
Path of tariffs will largely determine level of risk, academics tell Central Banking
NY Fed credit survey shows consumers are strapped
Study finds more people are having applications rejected and expect loans to be harder to secure
Trump taps Bowman to become Fed’s vice-chair for supervision
Designated chief regulator has opposed Basel III endgame and pushed for lighter capital rules
Insurers play key role in monetary transmission – IMF paper
Authors show sensitivity to long end of yield curve is “causally connected” to risk premia
US farmers need extra revenue to make ends meet – research
Costs largely outweigh income generated by agri, says Richmond Fed study
Professional long-run inflation forecasts are flawed – study
Chicago Fed research says projections are bogged down by cognitive distortions and overconfidence
US homes not adequately insured against disasters – report
Philly Fed study says most households do not have coverage to rebuild following catastrophic damage
Gilt repo clearing mandate on Bank of England’s radar
Sources say regulator mulling benefits of US-inspired regime, but is non-committal
Rates should stimulate economy in response to tariffs – study
Optimal monetary policy promotes employment and income, Minneapolis Fed paper argues
‘Trump slump’ hedges rise on rate cut fears
One dealer notes five-fold increase in number of clients hedging against possibility of faster easing
Credit delinquency rise may be due to home priorities – study
Consumers choosing to repay auto and home loans rather than credit cards, say authors
US tariffs will create persistent inflationary pressures – study
Dallas Fed paper say trade costs raise price levels sustainably above US central bank’s target
Risk of inflation de-anchoring is higher in US than Canada – study
Authors say risk has also risen for both countries post-Covid
Do central bank governors make good prime ministers?
Mark Carney is the latest to make the leap, but the record elsewhere has been mixed
‘No strategy’ in US tariffs, says Mexican economist
Measures ignore “triangular” trade relationship between US, China and Mexico
Atlanta Fed’s GDP estimate takes a nosedive
Bank projects more severe contraction in Q1, while analysts point to possible recession
The interest rate dilemma in an uncertain world: a balancing act
Biagio Bossone makes the case for a holistic policy approach that includes extending IT tolerance bands, smart fiscal policies, supply-side reform and financial safeguards
Fed researcher unveils card fraud simulation model
Author says paucity of data means simulation is increasingly important in study of payment fraud
Gen AI will have varying impact on graduates – Fed study
Automation will lead to job cuts but augmentation of roles could create employment, research claims
US tariffs could have larger-than-expected impact – study
Author suggests trade statistics are being misreported
Tighter policy in 2021 would have had ill effects – NY Fed study
Authors argue inflation would have fallen only modestly while global demand would have suffered
War in Taiwan would cause severe disruption – Fed study
Conflict would be most economically impactful since World War II, says author