United States
US Basel III delay to 2026 seen as almost inevitable
Reprioritisation and leadership changes cast doubts on timing of new proposals
Overvalued US stocks weaken FCIs’ signal effects – ECB research
Policy-makers should not be blinded by inflated equity prices, authors say
Experts expect Fed to hold firm in face of Trump’s attacks
Economists believe FOMC will hold rates, despite White House’s calls for policy to be eased
US bank profitability measure continues rising – study
Net interest margin climbed throughout 2024 and Q1 2025, St Louis Fed research finds
Trump: Powell is a ‘numbskull’ for not cutting rates
President calls for 100bp easing, while vice-president says Fed policy is “monetary malpractice”
Capping interchange fees would benefit cash and card users – Fed study
Authors say limit on payment card charges would be advantageous for both customers and merchants
Acting US currency comptroller defends pre-emption
Hood says principle is in line with federal law and court precedent
Should the Fed mandate collateral pre-positioning at the discount window?
Supervisor wants lenders to be ready to access central bank facilities, but formalising pre-positioning has some drawbacks
Tariffs will raise US prices throughout 2025 – Fed governor
Kugler says progress on core goods inflation has been reversed and trade policy could make things worse
Inflationary shocks hurt US labour market and output – Fed study
As real wages decline, workers search for new, less economically productive jobs, research finds
Moderate US bank stress could lead to global contagion – report
IMF study cites SVB’s collapse, which reverberated across world by pushing up US sovereign credit risk
Chance of US recession lower, but still high – NY Fed study
Authors say model puts chances at 75%, compared with 83% at beginning of 2024
People: April to June 2025
A round-up of central bankers in the news and on the move during the past three months
Jobs, not prices, are main reason for dissent on FOMC – study
Votes show unemployment in presidents’ districts is of greater concern to them than inflation
Trump’s trade policy a ‘wildcard’, says Bostic
Atlanta Fed president says tariffs picture is “unsettled” and calls for patience on monetary policy
Trade trends favoured China over US even before tariffs – study
St Louis Fed research shows long-term re-anchoring of countries’ trade links between 2002 and 2022
CCAR at a turning point, but which way is forward?
Banks sniff an opportunity to push the Fed for more openness over stress test models – and seize capital benefits
A fractured monetary system
US policy is encouraging a transition away from a dollar-led, rules-based order
Obituary: Stanley Fischer, 1943–2025
Fischer had a profound impact on central banking, as path-breaking academic and top policy-maker
Reflections on the international financial situation
Former IMF head Jacques de Larosière writes that markets are blind to Trump's policy shocks that are fragmenting the monetary ‘system’, causing strain in the eurozone and may result in stagflation
Supreme Court ruling raises storm clouds for Fed
Decision to allow dismissal of agency staff without cause poses risks to bank’s independence, say experts
Stablecoins impact US Treasury yields – BIS paper
Sector’s continued growth could affect monetary policy transmission, authors say
Why making cents no longer makes sense
Experts praise US Treasury’s decision to stop minting pennies, but question policy’s implementation
Fed agrees to unveil stress test models in transparency U-turn
US regulator commits to September 30 deadline for new measures