United States
Book notes: The doom loop, by Eswar S Prasad
A persuasive analysis of a new world disorder that will bring an end to central bank independence
Middle East conflict creates new uncertainty for the Fed
Additional inflationary risks could jeopardise Trump’s hopes for rate cuts, experts say
Middle Eastern central banks respond to Iran crisis
Israel unveils relief package for firms and citizens, while Turkey suspends repo auctions
R* has increased globally since pandemic – NY Fed research
Higher neutral rates show government bonds might not be as liquid and safe as before, economists say
Rogoff and Pill sound warnings over inflation
Former IMF chief economist says markets are underestimating Trump’s long-term impact
Book notes: Before the Fed, by Jon Moen and Mary Tone Rodgers
A significant contribution to understanding private-sector financial crisis responses, relevant to today’s lender-of-last-resort function
Fed governors extol AI’s ‘transformative’ potential
Waller sounds bullish note on technology, though Cook caveats optimism by warning of impact on jobs
Waller: my next FOMC vote is ‘close to a coin flip’
Governor says January’s positive jobs figures may be ‘noise’ rather than ‘signal’
BPI says SR 11-7 should go; bank model risk chiefs say ‘no’
Lobby group wants US guidance repealed; practitioners want consistent model supervision and audit
Lagarde downplays odds of early exit
ECB president uses interviews to say she is on a ‘mission’ with a ‘baseline’ of serving out her term
High tariff regime in the US is ‘here to stay’ – BoE’s Taylor
Impact on trade flows and pricing will take years to play out, MPC member says
US firms dominate entire AI supply chains – BIS bulletin
Tech giants operate across all layers, including designing chips and running clouds, study says
Europe’s strength in numbers could mitigate risks, says Panetta
Italian governor calls for progress on capital markets union to help guard against geopolitical threats
Fed paper touts prediction market data for monetary policy
Sites like Kalshi could become “new benchmark” for measuring expectations, researchers say
Kashkari says research criticism is new threat to Fed independence
Minneapolis Fed chief says comments by NEC director are continuation of pressure on monetary policy
Dallas Fed researcher cautions against expansionary policy
Study of US in the 1970s says oil shocks were not primary driver of inflation
FOMC minutes show sharp division in projections
Some members argue rates may need to be raised while others make case for easing
Barr: US labour market ‘especially vulnerable to negative shocks’
Fed governor says FOMC likely to continue holding rates for the time being
Emerging economies likely to lag advanced in AI-led growth – study
BIS report highlights divergence in technology’s impact on jobs and countries’ ability to adapt
Economists warn of emerging ‘sovereign-stablecoin nexus’
Researchers model regulatory options as stablecoins become intertwined with core markets
More financial integration key for Europe’s resilience, says Nagel
Bundesbank president says eurozone can adapt to new geopolitical reality
Banks’ internal markets impact wider funding conditions – paper
Repos from affiliates play key role in channelling liquidity to financial system, authors find
Chicago Fed study points to AI tail risk for US banks
Authors warn that a risk event could spill across multiple industries
Central bank independence ‘a means to an end’ – Miran
Fed governor says autonomy increases chances of monetary policy being aligned with business cycle