United States
Fed pivots to material risk – but what is it, exactly?
Top US bank regulator will prioritise risks that matter most, but they could prove hard to pinpoint
Supreme Court appears sympathetic to Cook
Conservative judges lament the way governor’s removal was handled and risks to Fed independence
Beige Books show promise at predicting recessions – study
LLM data on Fed reports is more accurate at forecasting downturns than yield spread, authors find
Fed study sounds alarm over algorithmic rises in credit limits
Researchers say US lenders are extending too much credit to subprime borrowers
Bailey underscores support for Powell
BoE governor also points to potential spillover risks to UK from events in US
Ricardian equivalence does not hold in reality, study finds
Researchers say consumers do not fully plan ahead for expected tax liabilities
Trade fragmentation still favours west over east – BdF study
Authors says US-led bloc better placed to win over neutral states than China-aligned grouping
Fallout of criminal probe into Powell continues
Trump’s investigation faces backlash at home, in Congress and abroad
Goolsbee backs Powell and raises tariff concerns
Chicago Fed chief says tampering with independence increases inflation risks
Sticky fears about sticky inflation
Survey finds investors are not yet ready to declare victory on inflation – with good reason
Experts decry ‘show trial’ of Fed chair
Probe slammed as politically motivated attack on Powell for doing his job
New England is pocket of recession risk in US – Fed study
Researchers say overall threat of national downturn is low, but requires monitoring nevertheless
Central bank governors express ‘full solidarity’ with Powell
Lagarde and Bailey among signatories of statement in wake of Department of Justice investigation
Collateral velocity is disappearing behind a digital curtain
Dealers may welcome digital-era rewiring to free up collateral movement, but tokenisation will obscure metrics
Book notes: The London Consensus, by Tim Besley, Irene Bucelli and Andrés Velasco
The authors set out guidelines to address shortcomings linked to the Washington consensus, but implementation will be a challenge
Richmond Fed president leaves policy path open in 2026
Barkin says consumer sentiment is still negative, despite US economy’s resilience
Yellen warns of fiscal dominance at the Fed
Former chair joins economists in sounding alarm over central bank’s response in event of debt crisis
Bowman’s Fed may limp on by after cuts
New vice-chair seeks efficiency, but staff clear-out could hamper functions, say former regulators
US ‘bearing large share’ of tariff costs – NBER paper
Authors find pass-through is nearly 100% and is reshaping how country trades
Philly Fed president says rate cuts could come late in 2026
Paulson points to variety of factors hampering US labour market
Winds of change 2026: managing opportunities
Shifts in monetary and fiscal policy are reshaping fixed income markets
Federal funds rate is not optimal, study warns
Dallas Fed research says transmission to other markets has deteriorated in recent months
How Bessent learned to stop worrying and love the T-bill
Short-dated issuance shows no signs of slowing. Some fear it could end badly.