Commentary
Economics departments use multiple coding languages
More than half of central banks use five or more coding languages and tools
Central banks predict growth more accurately than inflation
AI models may offer more precise forecasts
AI impact and usage growing in central bank economics departments
Regional variation exists, but adoption is increasing across the board
Most key projection models capture policy rates
But respondents rarely disclose policy rate forecasts alongside scenarios
Third of key models now employ endogenous financial sector
Multiple channels of monetary transmission rooted in majority models
Central banks complement traditional models with AI
Time series and semi-structural models remain economists’ choices for forecasting
Working paper production linked to number of PhD economists
Central banks averaged output of roughly 10 working papers last year
Third of economics departments say staffing ‘barely sufficient’
Forecasting, policy analysis and research are economists’ top duties
Economists’ average annual salary rises
Incomes have some relation with GDP per capita and central bank size
Economics staff strength increases over two-year period
Departmental size as share of central banks’ workforce widens to 7.7%, on average
Cross-border co-operation stronger for non-central bank supervisors
Roughly one-fifth of central banks lack supervisory college membership
Supervisors report capital and liquidity resilience across banks
Basel II remains most adopted global standard among respondents
Data quality is main focus for improved supervisory reporting
Supervisors with high level of automation rate submissions more highly, but quality still an issue
Data lakes and cloud are top tools for supervisory automation
Around half of authorities report extensive or full automation of supervisory data collection
Size and business model are key elements of risk profile
Supervisors tend to inspect systemic banks once a year
Supervisors report sharp increase in AI adoption
Summarisation ranks as topmost area of application, with biggest use in larger teams
Less than third of supervisors ran resolution exercise in past year
But most in Europe and Americas have dedicated resolution team
Half of jurisdictions practise collateral pre-positioning
Most believe banks in their jurisdictions are ready to access emergency central bank liquidity
Credit risk is supervisors’ top priority
Climate and AI risks rank lowest across respondents
Resolution framework fully enacted for 66% of supervisors
Bridge bank and bad bank are most widely available tools followed by statutory and contractual bail-ins
Europe leads in funds for deposit insurance and resolution
Supervisors from high income jurisdictions more likely to operate deposit insurance and resolution funds