Commentary
Inflation and GDP growth forecast errors decrease further
Forecast errors used widely for key model adjustments
One in five main models has endogenous financial sector
Benchmark highlights array of methods central banks use to model financial sector, but 40% still do not model the financial side of the economy
Central banks published fewer working papers and articles in 2023
Middle income and low income central banks published less
Time series and semi-structural models widely applied
High income countries more likely to use AI than peers from other income levels
Economic growth and inflation remain most forecast indicators
But year-on-year data show rising priority for exchange rates
Policy analysis takes most of PhD economists’ time
Other tasks consume just a quarter of their official hours
Two-thirds of central banks forecast policy rate in main models
But relatively few make their rate forecasts public
Economists’ median salary falls below $30,000 a year
Annual budget of economics departments averages under $1 million
Policy economists outnumber research colleagues
Economics FTE staff make up 4% of central banks’ overall employees, on average
Economics teams tend to be tailored by institution
But hub and spoke model is prevalent among high income respondents
Most central banks forecast cash demand over one to three years
Median central bank expects 5% increase in cash in circulation in 2024
G+D dominates central bank note sorting
Giesecke+Devriant’s BPS M7 machine is very widely used among central banks
Nearly half of central banks have access to cash policy
High income countries slightly more likely to maintain access to cash policies
Smaller banknote denominations have shorter lifespan
High income central banks produce longer-lasting cash
Middle income central banks see largest volume of counterfeit notes
Foil remains least used security feature for banknote production
Majority of central banks have emergency cash inventory
But few respondents say they have alternative strategies in place
Half of central banks recycle banknotes as sustainability measure
Most currency operations lack climate strategy, but a few plan to launch one
Minority of central banks keep whole cash cycle in-house
Banknote printing remains central banks’ most outsourced function
Currency staff make up 8% of central bank workforce
Institutions with own printworks have larger currency departments
Raised tactile features are most common banknote visual aid
Assistive mobile application offered by just two central banks
Polymer substrates used on one-fifth of banknotes
Data reveals widening adoption in upper-middle income jurisdictions
Average volume of defective banknotes remains above 100m units
Central banks retrieved over $1 billion of mutilated banknotes on average
Cash payments average over 30% of transactions in 2023
No pressures on number of printed banknotes, central banks say
Half of upper-middle income banks plan banknote issue in next year
Total number of banknote denominations in circulation averages under 10