Commentary
Credit and counterparty risk gains relevance as most covered risk
But central banks’ top risks vary by geographical regions
Centralised risk teams tend to have more sub-units
Size of central banks with climate change risk unit steadies at 12%
Financial and op risk divisions maintain largest staff
Upper-middle income nations tend to have different staffing priorities
Share of economics departments with data unit rises
Web scraping and administrative data are top alternative sources for economists
Heterogeneous agents and non-linearities rare in main models
Semi-structural models continue to be dominant choice of main forecast model at central banks
Economists commonly use AI for data analysis
Lower-middle income countries, Africa and Asia-Pacific report lower use of AI
Economists least likely to research impact of AI
Inflation dynamics retains position at top of the rankings
Peer-reviewed journals still top gauge for research impact
Smaller teams more likely to consider conference presentations as assessment tool
Inflation and GDP growth forecast errors decrease further
Forecast errors used widely for key model adjustments
One in five main models has endogenous financial sector
Benchmark highlights array of methods central banks use to model financial sector, but 40% still do not model the financial side of the economy
Central banks published fewer working papers and articles in 2023
Middle income and low income central banks published less
Time series and semi-structural models widely applied
High income countries more likely to use AI than peers from other income levels
Economic growth and inflation remain most forecast indicators
But year-on-year data show rising priority for exchange rates
Policy analysis takes most of PhD economists’ time
Other tasks consume just a quarter of their official hours
Two-thirds of central banks forecast policy rate in main models
But relatively few make their rate forecasts public
Economists’ median salary falls below $30,000 a year
Annual budget of economics departments averages under $1 million
Policy economists outnumber research colleagues
Economics FTE staff make up 4% of central banks’ overall employees, on average
Economics teams tend to be tailored by institution
But hub and spoke model is prevalent among high income respondents
Most central banks forecast cash demand over one to three years
Median central bank expects 5% increase in cash in circulation in 2024
G+D dominates central bank note sorting
Giesecke+Devriant’s BPS M7 machine is very widely used among central banks
Nearly half of central banks have access to cash policy
High income countries slightly more likely to maintain access to cash policies
Smaller banknote denominations have shorter lifespan
High income central banks produce longer-lasting cash
Middle income central banks see largest volume of counterfeit notes
Foil remains least used security feature for banknote production
Majority of central banks have emergency cash inventory
But few respondents say they have alternative strategies in place