Economics
Cross-border credit slips back into contraction
Latest BIS statistics show rebound of cross-border claims was temporary; China bucks trend with rapid growth of inward credit
SBP notes caveats to decade-high growth
Expansion of Pakistan’s economy continued in fiscal 2017, although the central bank is concerned about a widening current account deficit
OECD urges UK to maintain ‘close ties’ with EU
Latest assessment of UK economy warns of damaging impact of Brexit vote; Ángel Gurría says close future relationship “absolutely key”
Blanchard and Summers call for rethink of stabilisation policy
Both economists question consensus on fiscal prudence and advocate stricter financial regulation
IMF cautions global vulnerabilities put growth at risk
Fund calls central banks to provide needed monetary support while tackling underlying threats
Stressed banks may hamper deleveraging in eurozone periphery – ECB paper
Researchers use data on more than 400,000 companies and 900 banks from seven eurozone countries
Bank of Canada paper studies capital control motivations
Researcher designs policy rule to study whether capital controls are imposed with “mercantilist” or “macro-prudential” motivations
IMF: global recovery is broad but incomplete
Fund ups its growth forecasts but says many are missing out; Maurice Obstfeld urges policymakers to take action while “times are good”
Global factor playing bigger role in commodity prices, researchers say
“Single global factor” likely to be linked to demand, Banque de France paper finds
Markets upbeat on strengthening US wage growth figures
Non-farm payrolls drop slightly but wages appear to be gathering pace; figures impacted by hurricanes Irma and Harvey
Bank of Portugal expects stronger growth in 2017
Exports are expected to boost GDP growth to 2.5% in 2017, up from 1.5% in 2016
Book notes: Econometrics as a Con Art, by Imad Moosa
Every central bank should have a copy of this interesting study, which holds common econometric practice under the microscope, writes Graham Bannock
Neural network can beat conventional forecasts – Kansas City Fed research
Deep learning model outperforms Survey of Professional Forecasters at all horizons
Low wage rises may hamper inflation in Sweden – IMF
Higher housing prices and private debt call for stricter amortisation requirements
Constâncio discusses possible changes to new ECB model
Modelling of aggregate consumption and expectations must improve - ECB vice-president
BIS report sheds light on innovative big data use
Central banks across the globe are turning to big data to solve statistical issues, improve banking supervision, and analyse communications
Fed paper calls for rethink of conditions for setting capital controls
Policymakers should also consider how external shocks affect the borrowing capacity of the country, researchers say
Good data management key to extracting value from big data – panellists
Big data proves most useful when backed by a well-designed production chain – but it comes at a cost, central bank data experts say
Non-bank stress tests must be improved – Constâncio
ECB vice-president says stress tests for non-banks are still in a “fledgling state”
Danish central bank advises Faroese public spending cuts
Higher salmon prices and low unemployment may overheat the economy, the central bank says
ECB paper attempts rigorous testing of economic sentiment
Researchers correlate economic data from 1985 to 2016 with measures of sentiment