Economics
Higher inflation in the US pushes up yields
The headline consumer price index rose by 2.1% year on year
Credit constraints hits smaller eurozone firms’ investment – Spanish paper
Researcher finds credit constraints have less impact on working capital and growth
Eurozone needs structural reforms to realign real exchange rates – Italian paper
Real exchange rate misalignments persist for longer in eurozone, researchers say
UK inflation refuses to budge from 3%
Despite a decline in oil price pressure, UK inflation remains above target; latest figures increase the likelihood of the Bank of England raising rates in May
Lacklustre recovery down to pre-crisis factors – research
San Francisco Fed article says weak recovery in the US due to long-running factors, and not the immediate impact of the global crisis
US real GDP growth accelerating in 2018 – Atlanta Fed
The real-time index GDPNow forecasts an annualised expansion of 4% in the first quarter
World does not have to be ‘hostage’ to technology – Wilkins
Finding a way to control the market power of tech giants will be important, the Bank of Canada deputy says
Deflation tends to de-anchor expectations – BIS paper
Deflationary episodes seem to render expectations lower and more backward-looking
Standard measures understate slack in European labour markets – ECB paper
Researchers use survey data from 24 countries to track effects of sovereign debt crisis
Globalisation may reduce surpluses’ negative effects – paper
Nations recording surpluses do not necessarily create imbalances abroad, argues analysis
Cœuré: ‘three lines of defence’ needed to protect ECB
The ECB executive board member says without reforms the ECB may end up having to “test the limits of its mandate”
Misinterpreting commodity price swings can be damaging – BIS paper
Whether movements are down to supply shocks or changes in global demand matters for policy, and mistakes can be procyclical when central banks act together
Inflation falls in the euro area despite stronger growth
Annual price increases expected to fall to 1.3% in January, Eurostat says
Finnish paper examines 19th century Chinese lending
Loans to officials show how banks can enforce repayment despite hostile legal environment
Central bank communications risk circularity, says BIS paper
Policy communications influence market prices and market prices influence policy, warn Stephen Morris and Hyun Song Shin
Rebased ‘Maddison’ data reshapes economic history
New approach to measuring GDP per capita generates fresh insights from the long-run growth database
Liberalising services trade could tackle imbalances – BoE paper
Finding ways of reducing barriers to services trade could substantially cut imbalances
ESM hails Greece’s progress in third bailout
The country should exit the programme in August as growth accelerates and bond yields fall
Menon warns of Singapore's ‘demographic trilemma’
MAS chief says Singapore “must accept” slower growth of the labour force, but should also face up to the need for solutions
Fed paper models risk-taking channel of monetary policy
Model in which monetary expansion increases risk-taking appears to fit with the data
BIS paper: unconventional policies may have depressed natural rate
Economists find shifts in estimates of the natural rate co-move with unexpected changes in unconventional policy
Spanish paper analyses determinants of private saving
Fiscal, demographic, financial and income effects are key, researchers find
Bundesbank panellists call for change in German ‘mindset’
Mario Monti says he would like to free Germans from their economic “straightjacket”, while Benoît Cœuré hints at need for rebalancing
Big data can give valuable labour market signal – Fed paper
High-frequency private payroll data is useful in forecasting the labour market, researchers find