Lacklustre recovery down to pre-crisis factors – research

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Shell Jiang

Stripping cyclical effects from output data reveals that the recent lacklustre performance of growth in the US began before the 2008 crisis, implying the financial disruption is not to blame for the flattening of trend growth, researchers have found.

San Francisco Fed economist John Fernald and academic economists Robert Hall, James Stock and Mark Watson estimate cyclical effects using Okun’s law – the relationship between changes in output and changes in unemployment. Other research has shown

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