Economics
Fed official downbeat on US labour market
US labour market participation in stark contrast to advanced-economy counterparts, Daly warns
ECB paper looks at large database on inflation expectations
Expectations more powerful when lower bound on nominal rates is binding, researchers find
Housing bottlenecks could boost eurozone inflation – ECB paper says
Labour shortage, scarcity of building land, and administrative hurdles could limit supply
Immigrants smooth eurozone labour market shocks – Bank of Italy paper
Non-EU immigrants have higher mobility than Europeans moving between countries – researchers
BoE paper proposes fix for flawed rate expectation estimates
Model augmented with overnight indexed swap rates performs better, author says
Eurozone may be close to potential growth – ECB paper
But all estimates of potential GDP should be treated with caution, researchers argue
Fiscal deficits caused persistent pressure for Mexican inflation, paper finds
Central bank independence stabilised inflation, researchers find
US unemployment remains at lowest level since 1969
Hourly wage growth is at highest rate since 2009, but year-on-year inflation falls to 2%
BoE paper proposes nowcast method for GDP revisions
Dynamic factor model reveals information on how early estimates may be revised, authors say
Costa Rican public debt feeding into inflation expectations
The central bank says it remains “vigilant” to tensions that may compromise its inflation target
IMF’s Adrian calls for forecasting upgrade
Policy forecasts should do a better job of capturing endogenous risk, economist says
Can central bank revamp help Tunisia remain a ‘public good’?
Central Bank of Tunisia moves to modernise, but faces tough times ahead
Agent-based models: a new frontier for macroeconomics?
Agent-based modelling is opening up new possibilities for economics, but the discipline is still struggling to move from the sidelines to the mainstream
BoE paper highlights flaws in bank modelling
Many models still treat banks as “warehouses”, authors say, with important modelling implications
Populist policies can wreck economies, Sarb governor warns
South Africa needs economic stability, Kganyago says
Eurozone wage rigidity largely persisted in great recession – Finnish paper
Frequency of wage changes fell in recession in many countries, researchers find
Africa at risk from faster policy normalisation – Kenya’s Nyaoga
Higher interest rates could threaten portfolio inflows for a region struggling with price rises
ECB paper presents new sovereign stress model
New method builds on earlier CISS model to measure systemic stress in eurozone
Podcast: Arthur Turrell on agent-based modelling
The Bank of England economist says ABMs should complement, not replace, other models
Former Fed chair laments US disarray
“How can you run a democracy when nobody believes in the leadership of the country?”, Paul Volcker asks
Unconventional policy is best response to financial shocks – ECB paper
Non-standard measures shield borrowers from unwarranted lending rate rises, researchers say
US regulatory sanctions lead to banks cutting credit costs – Finnish paper
Sanctioned banks cut loan costs by 22bp on average, researchers find
Fed’s QE programme changed US corporate financing – BdF paper
Conventional monetary policy and QE have very different transmission mechanisms – researchers