Economics
Bank of Canada paper studies capital control motivations
Researcher designs policy rule to study whether capital controls are imposed with “mercantilist” or “macro-prudential” motivations
IMF: global recovery is broad but incomplete
Fund ups its growth forecasts but says many are missing out; Maurice Obstfeld urges policymakers to take action while “times are good”
Global factor playing bigger role in commodity prices, researchers say
“Single global factor” likely to be linked to demand, Banque de France paper finds
Markets upbeat on strengthening US wage growth figures
Non-farm payrolls drop slightly but wages appear to be gathering pace; figures impacted by hurricanes Irma and Harvey
Bank of Portugal expects stronger growth in 2017
Exports are expected to boost GDP growth to 2.5% in 2017, up from 1.5% in 2016
Book notes: Econometrics as a Con Art, by Imad Moosa
Every central bank should have a copy of this interesting study, which holds common econometric practice under the microscope, writes Graham Bannock
Neural network can beat conventional forecasts – Kansas City Fed research
Deep learning model outperforms Survey of Professional Forecasters at all horizons
Low wage rises may hamper inflation in Sweden – IMF
Higher housing prices and private debt call for stricter amortisation requirements
Constâncio discusses possible changes to new ECB model
Modelling of aggregate consumption and expectations must improve - ECB vice-president
BIS report sheds light on innovative big data use
Central banks across the globe are turning to big data to solve statistical issues, improve banking supervision, and analyse communications
Fed paper calls for rethink of conditions for setting capital controls
Policymakers should also consider how external shocks affect the borrowing capacity of the country, researchers say
Good data management key to extracting value from big data – panellists
Big data proves most useful when backed by a well-designed production chain – but it comes at a cost, central bank data experts say
Non-bank stress tests must be improved – Constâncio
ECB vice-president says stress tests for non-banks are still in a “fledgling state”
Danish central bank advises Faroese public spending cuts
Higher salmon prices and low unemployment may overheat the economy, the central bank says
ECB paper attempts rigorous testing of economic sentiment
Researchers correlate economic data from 1985 to 2016 with measures of sentiment
‘Significant non-linearities’ in debt-investment relationship, paper says
Researchers look at data from five peripheral eurozone countries
IMF paper calls for global co-operation on big data
Discussion note urges statistical authorities to “step up” their involvement in big data projects and develop frameworks for knowledge sharing
Sovereign debt crises hit non-tradable sectors harder
A 1% increase in bond spreads is associated with an average decline of 3% in growth of zero-traded industries
BoE’s Vlieghe: financial sector may have pushed rates down
MPC member suggests end of the gold standard seems to have lent a negative skew to growth; gives hawkish signals on future policy
Only 30% probability of eurozone inflation hitting target in next year, paper says
Italian researchers present composite index based on 15 indicators of price dynamics
Philadelphia Fed launches new research institute
Research body is tasked with better understanding consumer behaviour, particularly in relation to financial markets
BoE paper adds time-varying parameters to DSGE model
Method allows parameters to shift over time as the structure of the economy changes, yielding improvements to forecasting
More power for US politicians reduces credit in their states, paper finds
Gains in power for politicians' power may increase banks’ ability to screen out lenders, researchers say
Low-income families suffer higher inflation rates, paper finds
The differences in prices occur in the same categories of goods