‘Does the Fed know more about the economy?’ asks San Francisco Fed

MVA: Forecasting initial margin for client trades and dynamic hedges

The Federal Reserve’s long-term economic growth forecasts tend to be more accurate than private sector projections, an economic letter published by the San Francisco Fed says.

In the letter, Pascal Paul compares the accuracy of Fed and private sector forecasts over the period of 1980 to 2013. He also examines whether private sector forecasts change on the belief that Fed announcements contain “inside information”.

He finds that forecasters try to learn more about the Fed’s views from its

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