Economics
Negative rates could have sped up US recovery – San Fran Fed paper
Output gap could have been reduced by as much as half compared to actual figures, researcher says
Unconventional policy should be used rapidly – Fed paper
Researchers find 20–50% chance that US will face zero lower bound in next decade
Low rates can harm productivity, say Liu, Mian and Sufi
Low rates may end up discouraging investment across the economy, authors say
Data overhaul needed to enhance insolvency frameworks – IMF
Paper highlights the importance of data in analysing efficiency of current resolution policies
‘Global inflation gap’ points to slack across advanced economies – paper
Authors find no evidence that inflation is “on the brink of surging ahead”
Euro outpacing dollar as cross-border credit grows
Latest BIS statistics show widening gap between credit growth in the two major currencies
Podcast: Iceland removes gender bias from wages
Katrín Ólafsdóttir, MPC member at the Central Bank of Iceland, says equal pay certification will encourage women to enter the economics profession
Ageing population is deflationary – HKMA paper
Deflationary pressures “should not be ignored”, economist says
BoJ cuts inflation forecast in fourth consecutive outlook report
Central bank maintains interest rates and yield curve control
Tighter US capital ratios eased inequality – Bundesbank paper
Richer households’ incomes fell while Fed’s easing cushioned effects on middle and low earners
Paper proposes ‘re-engineering’ US statistics
System for compiling statistics is dated and overly complex, authors say
IMF expects global growth to slow further in 2019
“Significantly higher” and “increasingly intertwined” risks weigh on global growth, Lagarde says
UK lawmakers demand fix for RPI miscalculation
House of Lords says Statistics Authority’s failure to fix error has left many members of public poorer
Growth keeping global debt-to-GDP just below all-time high – IIF
Latest monitoring report puts debt at three times global GDP, with some countries especially vulnerable
Key Brexit vote complicates outlook for UK economy
Vote this evening leaves UK’s political and economic future uncertain; analysts optimistic on outlook for sterling
Low US unemployment unlikely to foster sudden wage growth – research
Fed projections see unemployment rate falling to 3.5% by the end of 2019
Bank of Israel calls on government to reduce deficit
Budget imbalance is forecast to reach 3.6% of GDP in 2019, official target is 2.9%
BIS’s Borio calls on economists to take money more seriously
Money is too often explored in isolation, or ignored completely, the BIS economist says
Employers alter skill demands in line with unemployment, researchers find
Requirements for a bachelor’s degree increased during higher unemployment, authors find
Spending behaviour in unemployment does not fit with rational models – paper
Behavioural models of “present-biased or myopic” choices fit better with the data, authors say
Blanchard calls for rethink on costs of debt
Fiscal cost of public debt may be zero, macroeconomist argues, but that does not make debt costless
India vulnerable to oil shocks – RBI research
Study weighs effects of oil shocks on current account, inflation and government finances
US payrolls data proves strong
Non-farm payrolls beat expectations and wage growth rises, despite fears of a global slowdown