Economics
Paper challenges Rey’s ideas on global financial cycle
Cerutti, Claessens and Rose contest idea that capital flows are mainly the result of common shocks or developments in the US
BIS payment stats to embrace non-banks and faster payments
New methodology acknowledges role fintech has played in reshaping payments landscape; contactless payment data to be included
ECB paper presents new measure for monitoring real estate vulnerability
Aggregated measure out-performs most models as predictor of past crises, authors say
Recent low US inflation figures likely to be revised – Dallas Fed vice-president
Data allows “nowcasting” of inflation, paper argues
Opaque money markets work well, Nobel laureate says
Bengt Holmström says policymakers should not try to make money markets more transparent
Finnish paper investigates key factors in financial development
Data points to rule of law and economic development are key factors, paper argues
New NY Fed dataset shows weakening labour market
New York Fed unveils new, more granular labour market data; results so far indicate wage growth is still elusive
Ecuador’s central bank forecasts sustained recovery
Nation experienced two years of recession on falling oil prices, but stable commodity prices, fiscal austerity and stronger trade links with Europe expected to support growth
IMF’s Adrian sketches macro-financial model of term premium
Tobias Adrian outlines a new way of modelling financial cycles within a New Keynesian framework, which produces a good fit with empirical observations on the term structure
Oil prices feed through to core inflation – Fed paper
Research finds changes in the oil price have a small but statistically significant impact on core inflation
National Bank of Denmark sees "major challenges" for Greenland’s economy
Greenland is experiencing an economic boom, but needs to diversify its economy; central bank warns political independence may be a mistake
Wage growth may be stronger than headline figures suggest
San Francisco Fed researchers point to evidence that headline figures may overstate wage weakness; UK figures provide a positive surprise
Book notes: The Limits of the Market, by Paul de Grauwe
De Grauwe has produced a concise analysis into how markets and governments react with one another; but his lack of familiarity with the history of economic thought is surprising
Lithuanian paper examines interplay between European housing and credit
Panel-like econometrics may give misleading results, authors warn
Goodhart and Pradhan: demographics will reverse ‘multi-decade’ trends
Ageing population is likely to put upward pressure on real interest rates and inflation, and push down inequality, economists say
Banks need to tailor data strategies to clients, paper says
Dutch customers are open to sharing their payments data to enhance security, but do not want banks to sell it on, research finds
Credit spreads’ limited use as short-term predictors – paper
Researcher examines the accuracy of three sets of credit spreads
Kansas Fed paper looks at impact of recessions on US workers
Participation rate of “prime-age” workers most likely to vary with business cycle, paper says
Spanish paper looks at business cycle’s effects on industry
Industries are not moving uniformly to cohesion with the business cycle, says paper
Paper’s forecasting technique using Markov-switching models
Results outperform Fed’s survey of professional forecasters, says Bank of Spain paper
San Francisco Fed economist explores methods to forecast interest rates
Michael Bauer aims to forecast interest rates based on the current level and long-run trend, and a narrative linking both
UK economy vulnerable to consumption-led recession
Fragile consumer spending could take a toll on growth, former BoE officials warn, leaving the central bank with a tough job ahead
Fed’s Brainard says US is ‘falling short’ in diversifying economics
Federal Reserve Board governor highlights the benefits of diversifying the economics profession, urging students to consider a career before “shutting the door”